LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

• RES 4: 127.06 High Jul 2 
• RES 3: 126.54 High Jul 7  
• RES 2: 125.52 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 125.06 20-day EMA          
• PRICE: 124.59 @ 05:59 BST Aug 03
• SUP 1: 124.03 Low Jul 23 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 123.93 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 123.77 Low May 18 and the M/T bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.09 1.000 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing   

Bund futures remain below the Jul 28 high. The current trend theme is bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. Note that the latest recovery allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price recently breached support at 124.88, the Jun 10 and 11 low and a key level. This opens 123.77, the May 18 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 125.06, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 125.52.

APAC equity markets are mixed on Monday seemingly ignoring the fall in oil prices due to the pause in the planned US offensive against Iran to allow negotiations at the request of Gulf countries. President Trump said that talks are due to begin Monday afternoon. US equity futures have benefited with the S&P e-mini up 0.6% and Nasdaq +0.9% but most Asian indices are little changed to down with earnings season adding to uncertainty.

• China’s indices are lower with the CSI 300 -0.7% following July RatingDog data showing the manufacturing PMI falling to 50.9 from 51.7, lower than expected, and new orders also weaker. The Hang Seng is close to flat.
• Korea’s KOSPI continues to be volatile as leveraged ETF rules changed on Friday. The KOSPI is down 5.2% while TAIEX, which is also impacted by the reforms, is up 0.8%.
• Japan stocks are down around 1% for the Topix and NKY 225. The yen has continued to rally with USD/JPY getting close to key support near 155.00, amid Japan-US joint FX intervention efforts. Export sensitive plays in Japan are likely feeling the pressure from the stronger yen.
• The ASX has been pressured by the impact of lower iron ore prices on certain mining stocks and is slightly higher today. Iron ore prices are down to $94.00 after reaching $100.95 on 15 July. The downtrend accelerated last week and continued today.  
• ASEAN indices are close to unchanged with the Straits Times down 0.3% but SE Thai & JCI flat.
• Later US July ISM/PMI manufacturing, European July manufacturing PMIs, June German retail sales and July Swiss CPI are released.

Outside of strong JPY gains, other G10 FX trends have been more muted. The session started off with the USD firmly on the back foot, with lower oil/UST yields (amid US-Iran talk hopes) weighing. The BBDXY index reached a fresh low of 1201.22, as USD/JPY dipped towards 155.00 amid a flurry of official comments, before stabilizing. We were last around 1204, still around mid June lows for the index. Oil futures are holding lower, while equity sentiment is better in the futures space, but yen moves are dominating in G10 FX for now. 

• AUD and NZD sit off earlier highs, particularly for NZD. AUD/USD got to 0.7058 not long after the open but couldn't build on these gains. We were last around 0.7030, still up 0.20% for the session. NZD/USD tested above 0.5900, but likewise couldn't hold these gains. We were last 0.5880/85, little changed for the session.
• For the A$, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 0.7004. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger short-term bounce and this would open 0.7071, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. First important support is 0.6922, the Jul 29 low. For NZD/USD, we a clean break above 0.5900 brings levels close to 0.6000 area into focus, last seen late May/early June. The 200-day EMA for the pair is back at 0.5830/35.
• Data outcomes haven't impacted sentiment for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. NZ building consents were down for the second straight month, but better overall for Q2. In Australia, July’s Melbourne Institute inflation gauge signals that the moderation in price pressures may have stalled at the start of Q3. The gauge rose 1.0% m/m bringing the annual rate to 4.0% after June’s 3.9%, which had been the lowest since the onset of the Iran War.
• EUR/USD sits near 1.1535 currently, with earlier highs just under 1.1560. GBP/USD got above 1.3500 in the first part of trade, but is now down to 1.3470, slightly weaker for the session. Oil related plays in terms of CAD and NOK are weaker.
• Later US July ISM/PMI manufacturing, European July manufacturing PMIs, June German retail sales and July Swiss CPI are released.