LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

• RES 4: 116.000 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 115.947 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 115.610 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 1: 115.390/115.560 High Jul 1 / High Jun 30 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 115.050 @ 05:56 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 114.940/700 Low Jun 23 / 22      
• SUP 2:  114.646 Trendline support drawn from the May 19 low 
• SUP 3: 114.180 Low Jun 10 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 113.840 Low May 20

A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Key resistance at 115.180, the May 29 and Jun 16 high, has recently been cleared. The clear breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19, and opens 115.610 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 114.180, the May 10 and 11 low. Initial support is at 114.940, the Jun 23 low.

Oil prices are slightly higher today after reports that Iran had again attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz signalling that vessels remain vulnerable in the area. Markets will now be watching for a US response. WTI rose to a high of $69.32/bbl before easing and is currently up 0.7% to $69.01/bbl. Brent reached $72.75/bbl, not threatening initial resistance at $78.47, and is now up 0.7% to $72.50/bbl. The BBDXY USD index is flat.

• The UK navy reported that a tanker had been hit off the coast of Oman, which was likely a Qatari LNG vessel. It seems Iran fired at two ships with both materially damaged, according to Axios. Ships made unexplained U-turns away from the waterway on Saturday but traffic appeared to resume on Sunday.
• Ongoing Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the area are making talks with the US difficult but the ceasefire is holding. Negotiations are due to resume after Khamenei’s burial on 9 July but foreign minister Araghchi said today they won’t recommence if threats continue. Numerous sticking points remain including free transit through Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, sanctions and frozen assets.
• Saudi Arabia cut the price on Arab light shipped to Asia for August by $11/bbl resulting in a discount of $1.50 to the benchmark – the first time since 2020. This reflects rising global supply.
• Later the Fed’s Bowman speaks and BoE’s financial stability report is published. US 20 June ADP employment, June NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, May trade, May German IP and June UK Halifax house prices are released. 

• RES 4: 1.1621 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1543 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1528 High Jun 18
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 1.1437 @ 06:03 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.1362/25 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

Recent gains in EURUSD appear to be corrective. The pair has pierced 1.1463, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 1.1543, the 50-day EMA. A bearish trend condition remains intact, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger lies at 1.1325, the June 24 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.