EU CREDIT SUPPLY: €€€ Linde (LIN): Final Terms

Sizable flattener spread posted at 0847:49ET:

• -10,362 TYZ6 104-15, sell through 104-15.5 post time bid, DV01 $633,100 vs.
• +7,831 UXYZ6 105-05, post time offer, DV01 $632,700

The first of three flagship Senate midterm debates takes place in Maine today, with incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) facing Democrat Troy Jackson (D) in a televised setting for the first time. The Maine race is one of the most crucial of the cycle, with Democrats viewing the seat as a must win.  

• On Wednesday, Iowa Rep Ashley Hinson (R-IA) will hold a first public debate of her Senate contest with Democratic state senator Josh Turek (D). Hinson, a former TV reporter, is expected to hold an edge in the format.
• On Thursday, Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers will hold a first debate in Grand Rapids, after Rogers skipped a planned debate last month. The Michigan race is one of two races – the other being New Hampshire – where the GOP has a credible chance of flipping a Democrat seat.
• While El Sayeed remains the favourite, some Democratic strategists have raised concerns that his progressive policy platform may have limited appear to more moderate Michigan voters. Indeed, a wide gap between the Governor’s race, where Democratic candidate Jocelyn Benson is leading by over nine points appears to support this position.
• According to Nate Silver’s midterm model, the three races are all among the most competitive in the country. The Iowa race has gained particular attention with the price of diesel and backlash to Trump tariffs making it surprisingly close -- a trend replicated across several Midwestern states. 

Figure 1: The most competitive Senate races (polling margin)

Source: Silver Bulletin

• MNI: US 05 OCT EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE 3.88% (UNCH VS PRIOR)
• EFFR PERCENTILES: 25TH 3.87% (UNCH); 1ST 3.85% (UNCH)
• EFFR PERCENTILES: 75TH 3.88% (UNCH); 99TH 3.90% (+1BP)
• US 05 OCT EFFR VOLUME USD 121 BLN (118 BLN PRIOR)