NOK: EURNOK Breaches 10.50; Resilient To Weaker Risk Backdrop

• RES 4: 7955.94 1.618 proj of the Jun 11 - 15 - Jul 29 price swing
• RES 3: 7914.38 1.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 15 - Jul 29 price swing
• RES 2: 7904.00 High Aug 13 and key M/T resistance
• RES 1: 7847.25 High Sep 21 
• PRICE: 7836.50 @ 14:30 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 7699.47/7575.00 50-day EMA / Low Sep 16 and bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 7508.25 76.4% retracement of the Jul 29 - Aug 13 bull leg
• SUP 3: 7386.00 Low Jul 29  
• SUP 4: 7360.00 Low Jun 11  

A strong rally in S&P E-Minis yesterday marks a bullish start to this week’s session and strengthens the likelihood of a recent reversal and the end of a corrective cycle. Note too, that a bullish engulfing candle on Sep 17, highlights a reversal signal. A continuation higher would open 7904.00, the Aug 13 high and key medium-term bull trigger. Key support is at 7575.00, the Sep 16 low. First support lies at 7699.47, the 50-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13 
• RES 3: 1.4126 76.4% retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5
• RES 1: 1.4052 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.4052 @ 14:36 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.3912/3732 20-day EMA / Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3672 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 1.3620 Low May 7

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and continues to appreciate. This reinforces the current short-term bull theme. The pair has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3928. The break signals scope for a stronger retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg. Sights are on 1.4080, the Aug 4 and 5 high. Key support has been defined at 1.3732, the Aug 21 low. First support to watch lies at 1.3912, the 20-day EMA. 

• +15,000 OQX6 95.06/95.31 put spds 2.5 over 95.56 calls ref 95.295
• +3,000 OQH7 96.50/97.00/97.50 call flys, 1.0 ref 95.35
• +2,000 SFRG7 95.31/95.50/95.62/95.75 put condors, 1.0 ref 95.44
• Block, +5,000 SFRZ6 96.00/96.25call spds, .75
• 6,000 SFRM7 97.75 calls, 2.0