EMISSIONS: EU Parliament Backs Clean Industrial Deal
{The European Parliament has adopted a resolution backing the Clean Industrial Deal and Industrial Decarbonisation Bank, stressing importance to tightly link EU industrial competitiveness with deep decarbonisation, it said.
- The resolution calls for an action plan on affordable energy, stressing fragmented infrastructure and investment frameworks, which are hindering electrification and emissions reduction.
- Industrial Decarbonisation Bank is critical for scaling up clean tech, with investments guided by carbon impact, scalability, and security of supply.
- It backed faster permitting, simplified funding access, and streamlined reporting, particularly for SMEs.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 5Y Buy
- +5,000 FVM5 107-23.25, post time offer at 1118:38ET, DV01 $210,000.
- The 5Y contract trades 107-23 last (+1.75).
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GILTS: Off Lows, Flattening Fades
The sell off in gilts has stalled as Tsys recover from session lows, leaving gilt futures within the range observed over Friday & Monday, last -34 at 91.16.
- The range extremes witnessed over the prior couple of sessions continue to present initial support and resistance (90.86/92.23).
- Flattening impulse generated by BoE chief economist Pill fades, yields now ~3bp higher across the curve.
- 2s registered fresh May highs at 4.066% before gilts recovered from lows, next upside level of interest seen at the April 10 high (4.078%).
- 5s saw a similar pattern develop but yields further out the curve respected highs seen in recent sessions.
- 5s30s is set to respect the April 14 closing low (~123bp) mentioned earlier, back above 125bp..
- BoE-dated OIS stabilises around pricing 40bp of cuts through year-end, with ~60% odds of a 25bp cut priced through August and just over 80% odds priced through September, before ~33bp of cumulative easing is priced through November.
- SONIA futures remain under pressure after Pill’s comments were digested/wider core global FI moves factored in, with some of the whites and reds through last week’s lows. Contract last 0.25-5.0 lower across the strip.
- Terminal rate pricing for the current cutting cycle (proxied by SFIU6 at present) last prints at 3.68% after testing last week’s hawkish extreme of 3.685% earlier in the session.
- UK CPI data is due tomorrow morning, our preview is here.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.202 | -0.9 |
Aug-25 | 4.063 | -14.8 |
Sep-25 | 4.002 | -20.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.877 | -33.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.816 | -39.5 |
Feb-26 | 3.734 | -47.7 |
Mar-26 | 3.722 | -48.8 |
