EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Week Amid Equities Gains
Apr-25 11:07
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rising on week alongside equity market gains as investors closely monitor trade uncertainty while continuing win streak. The correlation between EUAs and equities tightened to the highest level since Dec 2020.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 67.17 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 2.13% at 48.51 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas MAY 25 down 1.1% at 33.21 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas MAY 25 down 1.2% at 80.27 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.5% at 5088
- FTSE 100 JUN 25 down 0.1% at 8409
- Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period hit the highest level since Dec 2020 at 0.55.
- Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period remained high at 0.51.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.77.
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €65.89/ton CO2e, up 8.00% compared with the previous Germany auction at €61.01/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EUA Dec25 implied volatility rose to one-week high as of 24 April as market expecting greater volatility on recent global equities rebound. EUAs Dec25 are tracking nearly 2% in weekly gains, while the EU equity market is up 4%.
- The EC is working on developing default carbon price values across countries, sectors, and goods under CBAM, reported by CEMAsys.
- The UK CBAM certificate price will be set quarterly based on the average UK ETS auction price in the prior quarter, according to HMRC.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BUNDS: Some selling flows are going through
Mar-26 11:05
- Some selling flows are going through, all orders related as oppose to new news headline, Bund has seen around ~60k in the past 25 minutes of cumulative Volume, latest saw 3x 5k clips.
- US Tnotes, is also sold in 6k. Noted Yesterday that a break through the 110.12+/110.10 area would have suggested some potential extension up to the 4.40% Yield level.
- While 110.12+ was broken, the 110.10/110.08 will now be the initial area to watch, TYM5 printed a 110.10 low Yesterday.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Have Traded Through The 20-Day EMA
Mar-26 11:00
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are trading at their recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger. First support to watch is 5650.75, the Mar 18 low.
- The medium-term trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is up and recent short-term weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5293.33. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a retracement towards 5160.00, the Feb 4 low. The bull trigger is 5516.00, the Mar 3 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.0% SA THRU MAR 21 WK
Mar-26 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -2.0% SA THRU MAR 21 WK
