EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise on ETS Linkage Talk
Mar-12 16:51
UKA Dec25 is striking the largest single-day gain since 28 Jan following EU-UK ETS linkage reconsideration being brought up during the House of Lords meeting. Meanwhile, EUA Dec25 is also trending upward by tracking UKAs gains from 3pm, rebounding from the losses that were driven by TTF downward momentum in the afternoon.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.5% at 69.24 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 6.5% at 41 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas APR 25 down 2.1% at 41.825 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas APR 25 down 2.2% at 103.05 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.1% at 5362
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period weakened to 0.59 from the 0.65 on the previous day, as EUAs were uplift by UKAs rally on the day.
- ICE EUA futures are in consolidation mode. The trend outlook is bearish and price is trading closer to its recent lows. The contract has cleared the final retracement of the Dec 17 - Jan 30 bull leg - the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at €68.88. This strengthens the bearish theme and signals potential for a move towards the next key support at €64.05, the Dec 17 ‘24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is €73.99, the 50-day EMA.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent narrowed to €19.53/t CO2e from the €22.55/t CO2e in the previous day, hitting the lowest since 28 Feb.
- The EU and the UK are giving “serious consideration” to linking the two carbon markets, Spencer Livermore, financial secretary to the Treasury, said, cited by Bloomberg.
- The UK is planning to closely follow developments under the EU CBAM, while exploring all options to improve trade and investment with the EU, including linking the emissions trading schemes, Spencer Livermore, financial secretary to the Treasury, told the UK’s House of Lords.
- The EU-UK ETS linkage will benefit the UK’s iron, steel and electricity sectors the most, as they are most exposed to EU CBAM, according to UK trade statistics.
- Funds positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the fourth consecutive week with net long positionings holding at the lowest since 19 January, the latest COT data as of 7 March showed.
- Funds positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the second consecutive week, the latest COT data as of 7 March showed.
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US: Schumer Suggests Democrats Could Leverage Government Shutdown
Feb-10 16:35
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has signalled in a 'letter to colleagues' that Senate Democrats will use leverage in the upcoming government funding negotiations to push back against President Donald Trump's attempts to reform the federal bureaucracy.
- Schumer: "President Trump has handed the keys of the Presidency to his cronies, sycophants, and radicals who are hell-bent on pursuing a coordinated agenda - mapped out in grave detail in Project 2025 - to hollow out the government and cut off critical services to American communities across the country. This is for one purpose: More power and wealth for the very rich."
- Schumer added that Senate Democrats, "will use our votes to help steady the ship for the American people in these turbulent times. It is incumbent on responsible Republicans to get serious and work in a bipartisan fashion to avoid a Trump Shutdown."
- Schumer's letter comes as Democrat and Republican negotiators appear far from agreeing on a topline number for FY2025 funding, just 32 days from the funding deadline.
- Senator Andy Kim (D-NJ) similarly indicated to NBC yesterday that Democrats may be willing to use a shutdown as leverage to oppose government reforms: “...for the last two years, [Republcians] needed Democratic votes for every single continuing resolution and they should not count on that this time,”
- Punchbowl noted this morning: “We’ve been crystal clear in our view that Washington is drastically underestimating the chance for a government shutdown after March 14.”
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.225%(ALLOT 79.50%)
Feb-10 16:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.225%(ALLOT 79.50%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 35.45% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.32% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.01
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.291 BLN FROM $84.000 BLN TOTAL
Feb-10 16:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.291 BLN FROM $84.000 BLN TOTAL
