CEE: ESTONIA: Russia Pledges Retaliation After Senior Diplomat Expelled

The Russian Foreign Ministry has pledged to retaliate against Estonia's expulsion of a senior diplomat from its embassy in Tallinn earlier today. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that the First Secretary of the Russian embassy staff "has been directly and actively involved in undermining the constitutional order and legal system of Estonia, as well as in dividing Estonian society, contributing to the crimes against the state, including several offences related to sanctions violations.”

• The initial 'retaliation' is likely to involve the tit-for-tat dismissal of diplomatic staff at the Estonian embassy in Moscow, but could escalate further.
• Relations between Estonia and Russia are arguably among the most tense in Europe:
  • In May, Estonian authorities uncovered what they say was a plot organised by local pro-Russian politicians, acting in concert with Moscow, to create a paramilitary unit that would oust the gov't in Tallinn.
  • In late-July, the Estonian Defense Forces General Staff reported that a Russian naval vessel had illegaly entered Estonia's territorial waters for a period of 35 mins.
  • Also in July, the Interior Ministry claimed that Russia had moved signal jamming equipment closer to the Estonian border, which could disrupt drone activity and GPS used by commercial planes and ships.
  • A report from the UK National Cyber Security Centre in May claimed that Russia's military intelligence service (GRU)'s Unit 26165 hacked surveillance systems in an effort to disrupt aid to Ukraine. Estonia, one of the world's most highly digitised societies, remains at significant risk from Russian hybrid and cyber attacks.