EM Credit Weekly - Primary Times

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Pivot Points
• Credit Markets: Asia, CEEMEA primary emerges, LATAM not so much
• Rates: Fuelling inflation
• EMFX: A potentially stable USD into year-end does not mean much for credit
• Commodities: Oil transmission to spread performance still exists

Asia
• Thematic: Issuance bonanza in August
• East Asia: South Korea merges state utilities
• Southeast Asia: Thai deficit weaker, likely cyclical
• South Asia: India stays focused on infrastructure

CEEMEA
• CEE: Another wartime winter keeps Ukraine’s credit trajectory shaky, while the broader region continues to offer selective value
• Eurasia: Astana repricing, Islamabad returning
• GCC & Middle East: Buffers diverging across the region, but investor appetite remains remarkably intact
• Frontier Africa: Nigeria is moving up the rating chain while Senegal searches for a floor
• Services & Diversified Africa: Directionally positive for South Africa and Rwanda, but the bar for further outperformance is rising

LATAM
• Andean Region: Choppy waters
• Central America/Caribbean: Financing needs well met with demand
• Brazil: Teeming with uncertainty
• Mexico: Taking a page from the Trump playbook

Primary Activity
• Issuance’s opening ahead of Labour-day