BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Resolve Stronger After Spring Statement

Mar-26 18:15

Gilt yields resolved lower after volatile trading around the UK government's highly-anticipated fiscal statement, outperforming Bunds in a bull flattening move.

  • Core instruments strengthened in early trade, with Gilts benefiting from a softer-than-expected inflation report.
  • Gilt yields jumped to session highs on the Spring Statement release, but rebounded sharply after the release of the Gilt Remit showed a slightly lower than expected total (GBP299.2B vs. median GBP303B). The UK curve would close bull flatter.
  • Core FI rallied through the cash close, as the White House confirmed President Trump would announce auto tariffs later in the day.
  • ECB commentary was mixed but not unexpected given the sources:  dove Centeno said he saw no reason not to cut in April; hawk Holzmann conversely said he wouldn't vote to cut rates in April.
  • The German curve bull steepened; periphery EGB spreads closed slightly wider of Bunds following a late risk-off move.
  • Thursday's calendar is lighter, with appearances by BoE's Dhingra and multiple ECB officials, Spanish retail sales and ECB monetary aggregates data, and the Norges Bank decision bearing attention. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.8bps at 2.119%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.414%, 10-Yr is down 0.3bps at 2.795%, and 30-Yr is up 0.6bps at 3.137%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.1bps at 4.29%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 4.37%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 4.728%, and 30-Yr is down 6bps at 5.309%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 0.6bps at 110.2bps / Spanish up 0.2bps at 62.5bps

Historical bullets

BONDS: Europe Pi: German Short Setting Picks Up

Feb-24 18:14

Per our latest Europe Pi update, German contracts have notably moved toward short territory over the past week, as the rolls approach.

  • Schatz has remained flat since our last update on Feb 12.
  • But Bobl and Bund have moved from flat to short, joining Buxl.
  • Notably all three of the latter contracts saw short-setting last week, while Schatz saw long reduction.
image

 

GLOBAL: President's Trump and Macron Make Comments on Ukraine/Defense

Feb-24 18:05
  • Latest headlines crossing from President Trump on Ukraine:
    • "DOES NOT SEE PROBLEM WITH SENDING EUROPEAN TROOPS AS PEACEMAKERS IN UKRAINE"
    • "WILL MEET WITH ZELENSKIY, COULD COME THIS WEEK OR NEXT TO SIGN MINERALS DEAL" (Reuters)
    • "MEETING WITH PUTIN WILL HAPPEN SOON" (BBG)
    • "TRUMP SAYS PUTIN WILL ACCEPT EUROPEAN PEACEKEEPERS" (Reuters)
  • French President Macron also signalling that Europe is willing to become a stronger partner on defense:
    • *MACRON: EUROPE IS WILLING TO STEP UP
    • *MACRON: EUROPE WILLING TO BE STRONGER PARTNER ON DEFENSE
    • *MACRON: READY TO PROVIDE SECURITY GUARANTEES, INCLUDING TROOPS (BBG)

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review: Decent Treasury 2Y Note Auction

Feb-24 18:04
  • Tsy futures remain bid (TYH5 +4.5 at 109-26.5) after the latest $69B 2Y note auction (91282CMP3) stops out: 4.169% high yield vs. 4.179% WI; 2.56x bid-to-cover vs. 2.66x prior.
  • Peripheral stats has Indirect take-up surging to 85.49% from 65.02% prior, directs retreats to 7.64% vs. 21.27% prior, primary dealer take-up falls to 6.87% vs. 13.71% prior.
  • The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for March 25.