Gilt yields resolved lower after volatile trading around the UK government's highly-anticipated fiscal statement, outperforming Bunds in a bull flattening move.
- Core instruments strengthened in early trade, with Gilts benefiting from a softer-than-expected inflation report.
- Gilt yields jumped to session highs on the Spring Statement release, but rebounded sharply after the release of the Gilt Remit showed a slightly lower than expected total (GBP299.2B vs. median GBP303B). The UK curve would close bull flatter.
- Core FI rallied through the cash close, as the White House confirmed President Trump would announce auto tariffs later in the day.
- ECB commentary was mixed but not unexpected given the sources: dove Centeno said he saw no reason not to cut in April; hawk Holzmann conversely said he wouldn't vote to cut rates in April.
- The German curve bull steepened; periphery EGB spreads closed slightly wider of Bunds following a late risk-off move.
- Thursday's calendar is lighter, with appearances by BoE's Dhingra and multiple ECB officials, Spanish retail sales and ECB monetary aggregates data, and the Norges Bank decision bearing attention.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.8bps at 2.119%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.414%, 10-Yr is down 0.3bps at 2.795%, and 30-Yr is up 0.6bps at 3.137%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.1bps at 4.29%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 4.37%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 4.728%, and 30-Yr is down 6bps at 5.309%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.6bps at 110.2bps / Spanish up 0.2bps at 62.5bps