BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Curves Resolve Steeper After Fed, BOE Decisions

• WTI Crude is lower today, with the visits of US and Iranian delegations to Doha in focus amid uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz transits.
• WTI Aug 26 is down by 1.7% at $69.6/bbl.
• Iranian and Omani experts will start talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days and will try to obstruct vessels outside defined paths, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said.
• Meanwhile, crude oil production in the region is continuing to recover, with Kuwaiti crude output up to around 1.9m b/d, according to Argus. The UAE has also boosted crude oil and condensate exports to a record high in June, according to Kpler/Vortexa data.
• A short-term bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the sell-off last week reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a move towards $65.95, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 16 - May 18 bull leg.
• Initial firm resistance is at $81.98, the 50-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, precious metals have edged higher on Tuesday, with spot gold up by 0.4% to $4,030/oz and silver rising by 2.4% at $59.7/oz.
• Despite this, gold remains down by ~11% this month, while silver has fallen by over 20% in June, amid the easing of Middle East tensions and recent post-Fed strength of the US dollar.
• For gold, a bearish theme remains intact and recent gains have been corrective. Sights are on the $3,900.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance is $4,197.5, the 20-day EMA. 

The ECB is eyeing an increase in minimum reserve requirements by the autumn, according to Reuters citing sources. The objective of such a move would be to reduce the ECB's interest payments to banks, as mandatory reserves are not remunerated at the current 2.25% rate. The minimum reserve requirement has been 1% since 2012 (cut from 2% amid the Eurozone crisis) and there have been discussions over raising it over the last few years given large levels of excess liquidity in the system.

• Reuters: "The ECB is considering doubling the proportion ​of cash lenders must keep as reserve in an unremunerated account, six sources told Reuters, which ‌would cut the central bank's own interest bill and mitigate the side effects of its inflation fight. The potential increase, which is being debated by European Central Bank policymakers, would raise minimum reserve requirements to 2% from 1% of banks' customer deposits and some other forms ​of funding, the sources said. A decision over the potential move, which has not been formally discussed by the ECB's Governing Council, is expected by the autumn."

• RES 4: 163.62 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 3: 163.56 Top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low.
• RES 2: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 162.66 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 162.64 @ 17:04 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 161.28 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 2: 160.86 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 159.85 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 158.74 Low May 25 

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair continues to appreciate. The break of 161.95, the Jul 3 ‘24 and Jun 25 major high, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 163.56, the top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, currently at 159.85.