EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply: W/C 28 July

• Oil markets have stabilised on Wednesday after falling sharply over the previous two days following the de-escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, with the ceasefire holding so far. This has allowed the geopolitical risk premium to decline.
• WTI Aug 25 is up by 0.9% at $64.9/bbl.
• OPEC meets virtually on July 6 to decide August’s production target. Another increase is likely as the group normalises output, targeting market share and punishing overproducing members.
• For WTI futures, support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.53, which has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing $58.87, the May 30 low.
• On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has been rangebound today, with the yellow metal 0.2% higher at $3,330/oz.
• A bullish theme in gold remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Resistance at $3,435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced. Initial key support to monitor is $3,289.2, the 50-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, copper has risen by 0.7% to $496/lb.
• Yesterday’s gains saw copper pierce $502.70, the Apr 23 high, undermining the recent bearish theme and signalling scope for an extension higher near-term. This has opened $514.43, a Fibonacci retracement.

European curves lightly twist steepened Wednesday.

• Yields looked headed lower in early trade, with no clear headline driver though seemingly continuing the bullish global bond move from Tuesday's close.
• The rally lost steam however, and yields steadily edged higher throughout the session from around 9am London time.
• Various factors contributing to the reversal included a soft 15Y Gilt auction as well as some fiscal headlines surrounding European countries increasing defence spending amid the NATO summit, and related US threats to increase tariffs on Spain.
• Gilts outperformed Bunds, with twist steepening in both the UK and German curves.
• Periphery/semi-core EGB performance was mixed, with OATs leading gains.
• Thursday's schedule includes appearances by BOE's Bailey and Breeden and ECB's Schnabel, Guidos and Lagarde, along with German GfK consumer confidence and UK CPI data.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.8bps at 1.843%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 2.142%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.565%, and 30-Yr is up 2.6bps at 3.052%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 3.856%, 5-Yr is down 1.2bps at 3.979%, 10-Yr is up 0.8bps at 4.481%, and 30-Yr is up 2.3bps at 5.231%.
• Italian BTP spread down 0.6bps at 91.3bps / French OAT down 1.6bps at 69.6bps 

Waiting for Czechoslovak Grp to launch:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 06/25 $3B #Republic of Peru $1.6B +10Y +125, $1.4B 30Y +140
• 06/25 $3B #Honda $700M 3Y +70, $1.3B 5Y +85, $1B 10Y +105
• 06/25 $3B #CaixaBank $1B each: 4NC3 +90, 6NC5 +105, 11NC10 +130
  06/25 $1.25B #Welltower $600M 5Y +67, $650M 10Y +87
• 06/25 $1.25B *Swedish Export Cr 2Y SOFR+35
• 06/25 $1B #Cheniere Energy +10Y +128
• 06/25 $750M *Resolution Life 10Y 6.75%
• 06/25 $1B Czechoslovak Grp 5.5NC2 6.5%a (dual currency w/ E1B)