LOOK AHEAD: Economic Data Calendar 03/08/2026

NZGBs are little changed after US tsys finished moderately cheaper across benchmarks. 

• Nonfarm payroll gains are expected to slow in June after a very strong stretch (in relative terms). Broad Bloomberg consensus sees NFP rising 110k (172k prior) and private 115k (120k prior), whilst primary dealer analysts share that view for total payrolls but are more conservative for private at 98k.
• ADP private sector employment disappointed expectations in June as it increased 98k after two months a little above 100k, although it was still the strongest increase since Jan 2025 prior to Apr-May.
• NZ Treasury published financial statements for 11 months ended May 31. OBEGALx deficit is NZ$6.79b, NZ$3.04b narrower than the NZ$9.83b gap projected in the May budget. Variance mostly reflects higher-than-expected revenue.
• NZ home-building approvals fell 4% m/m in May versus revised +11.1% in April.
• NZ home value index fell 0.2% m/m in June versus revised -0.3% in May, according to Cotality.
• Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. XX bps of tightening is priced for July, while February 2027 assigns XX bps.
• Today, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

• RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
• RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
• RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 127.52 @ 16:25 BST Jul 01
• SUP 1: 127.37 - Low Jul 01
• SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999

Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.  

Spot USD/CNH tracked recent ranges as Wednesday trade unfolded, unable to build on momentum above 6.8000. This leaves us wedged between the 20 and 50-day EMA points (near 6.7900 and 6.8015 respectively). CNH was little changed for Wednesday's session, while the BBDXY index gained just over 0.20%. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 6.7909, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker rose 0.26% to 102.84, fresh highs back to 2022 for this index. 

• The June PMI outcomes for China have likely allayed some fears of a sharp loss of economic momentum at the end of Q2. Still, the Citi China EASI remains entrenched in negative territory at -39.50, only marginally above recent lows. It remains at the weakest read relative to the major economies/regions. This isn't impacting CNH performance on key crosses, but maybe adding to the stable USD/CNH backdrop, amidst supported broader USD trends. USD/CNH risk reversals are in positive territory for 1, 3 and 6 month tenors, while the 1yr continues to push higher (last -0.10).  
• CNH/JPY is still eyeing a 24.00 figure upside test (with 20-day EMA support at 23.76), while EUR/CNH is back close to 7.7300, not far from June lows (7.7132). Near term risks for these crosses will rest with the US NFP outcome tonight, but EUR/USD remains in a bearish backdrop from a MA studies standpoint and USD/JPY is eyeing a test above 163.00.
• On the local data front, the RatingDog services PMI is out tomorrow, while next week June inflation figures are out (next Thursday).
• Finally, from overnight, MNI US-CHINA: China FM Talks Up 'Strategic & Sustainable' Relations In Rubio Call.