EUROPEAN INFLATION: ECB Underlying Metrics Benign; But MNI "Services Common" Up
Aug-20 11:43
The ECB’s underlying inflation metrics were relatively benign in July, with the headline PCCI measure easing to 2.05% Y/Y (vs 2.18% prior), the lowest since January. Core PCCI also decelerated to 2.00% (vs 2.04% prior)
- Elsewhere, Supercore ticked back up to 2.6% Y/Y after 2.5% in June. It has hovered between 2.5-2.6% for nine months now. A reminder that this is a model-based measure isolating items that co-move with the business cycle, not a US-style exclusion measure.
- The 10% trimmed mean measure rose to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.4% in June, 2.5% in May), while the 30% trimmed mean was unchanged at 2.4%
- Finally, the weighted median fell to 2.6% Y/Y, the lowest since March.
Elsewhere, MNI’s “Services Common” indicator, a PCA-based measure of underlying services inflation akin to the BOC’s CPI-Common series, has accelerated for three consecutive months now. In July, it was 3.60% Y/Y, up from 3.42% prior for the highest since June 2025.
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GBP: Sterling Underperformance Noted, GBPUSD Approaches 1.34
Jul-21 11:27
- Relative sterling underperformance is noted in the G10 FX space, as markets continue to reflect on PM Burnham’s new cabinet appointments and the GBPUSD rally from last week continues to be eroded.
- Local news that could be providing headwinds on Tuesday include the Former Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Darren Jones, casting doubt on the funding process for the first major policy announcement of the Burnham gov't, while reports have also circulated that the US is deeply concerned about Ed Miliband’s appointment as foreign secretary.
- For now, the latest cable pullback appears technically corrective, however, spot is now re-approaching the 1.34 handle and narrowing the gap to key short-term support at 1.3342, the Jul 14 low.
- Latest price action has also seen EURGBP extend its recovery from last week’s lows to 0.75%. Resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA is at 0.8546.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI looks at the EU's strategy on trade with China. - On [...]
Jul-21 11:27
MNI looks at the EU's strategy on trade with China. - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US TSYS: Tsys Paring Gains/Extending Lows
Jul-21 11:18
- Treasuries just took another leg lower in the last couple minutes, curves steeper with the short end outperforming (2s10s +1.632 at 39.538).
- Rates came under pressure a few minutes ago after wires reported Iran hit several power and water de-salination plants in Kuwait Monday.
- TYU6 trades -1 at 108-26.5 low, yield +.0121 to 4.6039, key technical support lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
- Cross asset update: Bbg US$ tapped 1217.72, SPX emini pared gains ESU6 +33.0 at 7517.25.
