EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U6) Bullish Outlook

Decelerations in food and goods inflation offset a rebound in services in July, leaving CPI-ATE inflation steady and below analyst consensus. This may affirm consensus for a Norges Bank hold on Thursday, but focus will remain on the guidance. On a seasonally adjusted basis using stats Norway data, CPI-ATE inflation rose 0.2% in July, after -0.1% in June. This pulled 3m/3m annualised inflation momentum down to 2.1%, the lowest since May 2024. 

Services inflation rose to 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.2% prior), with rents steady at 3.8% Y/Y and services ex-rent at 3.5% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior). Services where labour dominates excluding regulated prices (a reasonable measure of wage-led, underlying inflation pressures), ticked up to 3.8% Y/Y (vs 3.7% prior), and so remains quite sticky. Services with other important price components excluding administered prices was 5.4% Y/Y (vs 4.6% in June, 5.7% in May).

• Looking at volatile items: There was a rebound in both airfares (2.9% Y/Y vs -4.0% prior) and package holidays (3.0% Y/Y vs -2.8% prior) in July, though accommodation services pulled back notably to 1.7% Y/Y (vs 4.7% prior).
• Cultural services (3.0% Y/Y vs 3.3% prior) and insurance (15.4% Y/Y vs 16.6% prior) eased a little. 

Goods inflation was soft at 1.6% Y/Y (vs 2.2% prior), with domestic goods easing to 2.7% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior) and imported goods at 1.3% Y/Y (vs 1.7% prior). Imported goods have reversed upward momentum seen in Q1, potentially a function of the stronger exchange rate. 

• There was another deceleration in food inflation in July to 0.9% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior). The 3.1% M/M rise was within the range of analyst estimates we had seen.
• Information processing equipment was -2.5% Y/Y after 4.8% in June (-5.2% M/M). Some analysts had expected this category to rebound partially after a notable decline in June.
• Clothing and footwear inflation accelerated to 2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior), but furnishings and household equipment pulled back to 0.5% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior). 

• The German Bund gapped lower Overnight with no signed deal between Iran and Oman yet, as well as Houthis claiming further attacks near the Red Sea.
• The contract failed to test Friday's low at 124.71, managed a 124.80 low Overnight to now trade at the intraday high of 124.97 with Oil slipping back lower.
• Risk is still tilted to the upside for Yields, next support in Bund comes at that 124.42/124.22 Gap initially.
• The Overnight Opening gap is up to 125.08, although the notable initial resistance still resides at 3.05% in Yield (equates to 125.58).
• There are no Tier 1 Data for the session, all eyes are on the US Inflation this Week, starting with the CPI on Wednesday.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Hammack.

• RES 4: $4595.2 - High MAy 29
• RES 3: $4507.1 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - Jun 30 bear leg
• RES 2: $4382.3 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $4371.9 - High Aug 7 
• PRICE: $4343.4 @ 07:21 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: $4194.8/4128.5 - 50- and 20-day EMAs 
• SUP 2: $3996.1/3943.3 - Low Jul 29 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 2025

Gold rallied sharply higher last week. The metal breached the upper resistance of a triangle formation, and resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $4194.8. The clear break of the EMA highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and a possible reversal. Sights are on $4382.3, the Jun 17 high, and further out, $4507.1, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $3943.3, the Jun 30 low.