EQUITIES: E-Mini S&P Bull Cycle Remains Intact
The primary trend in EuroStoxx 50 futures remains bullish. However, for now the contract is in a corrective cycle. An important support around the 50-day EMA, at 6382.48, has been pierced. A clear breach of the EMA would highlight a stronger short-term reversal and pave the way for an extension towards 6201.00, the Jul 21 low. The bull trigger is 6602.00, the Aug 12 high. Initial resistance is at 6517.00, the Aug 27 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. Price continues to trade above a key support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 7628.53. A clear break of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat. For bulls, initial resistance to watch is 7782.50, the Aug 28 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1130.51 pts or -1.7% at 65269.33 and the TOPIX ended 75.47 pts lower or -1.83% at 4050.33.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 7.852 pts or +0.2% at 3940.551 and the HANG SENG ended 95.94 pts lower or -0.38% at 25317.18.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 176.32 pts or -0.68% at 25829.18, FTSE 100 lower by 32.92 pts or -0.3% at 10789.18, CAC 40 down 41.36 pts or -0.5% at 8264.79 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 36.95 pts or -0.58% at 6367.04.
- Dow Jones mini down 489 pts or -0.92% at 52951, S&P 500 mini down 32 pts or -0.41% at 7689.75, NASDAQ mini down 63.75 pts or -0.22% at 29498.5.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Macro Week Ahead: July CPI/PPI Reports
- Wednesday’s July CPI report will be closely watched by the market after a surprisingly soft June report ended an otherwise strong run through 1H26.
- Senior FOMC members warned that they can’t take much signal from one ready reading after the previously strong run. That includes Chair Warsh along with Governor Waller who explicitly laid out his reaction function ahead of the June release, where he said he would need a couple soft reports to say it’s a signal.
- A second soft report here could bolster the dovish shift in markets since the late July FOMC and renewed Middle East de-escalation but equally a strong report could re-emphasis the concerns from a growing share of the committee on stubbornly high inflation.
- That could especially be the case after the market backlash to the FOMC decision and Warsh’s press conference with curves steepening on questions whether hawkish rhetoric will be met with action.
- We have currently seen unrounded core CPI forecasts in the range of 0.18-0.24% M/M for July after the far weaker than expected -0.02% m/m in June but will of course update in greater detail in the MNI US CPI Preview.
- Thursday then sees the PPI report which will firm up core PCE estimates along with giving the latest update on input cost pressures.
Date ET Impact Event
08/08/2026 1245 Fed's Michelle Bowman
11/08/2026 0600 ** NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11/08/2026 0815 *** ADP Employment Report
11/08/2026 0855 ** Redbook Retail Sales Index
11/08/2026 1000 *** NAR existing home sales
12/08/2026 0700 ** MBA Weekly Applications Index
12/08/2026 0830 *** CPI
12/08/2026 1400 ** Treasury Budget
13/08/2026 0815 Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
13/08/2026 0830 *** Jobless Claims
13/08/2026 0830 *** PPI
13/08/2026 0840 Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
14/08/2026 0830 *** Retail Sales
14/08/2026 1000 * Business Inventories
14/08/2026 1000 *** UMich Surveys of Consumers
MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: September Hike Odds Fade, CPI Test Next
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week and what to watch out for in the week ahead.
- Please find the full report here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4hhavNK
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: mixed & two-way following Thursday's heavy put volumes. Underlying futures bounce (crude dipped) on late headline the US will end Hormuz Strait blockade - once Iran/Oman deal is formerly anncd. But Iran officials anncd yesterday that US and Israel goods and ships will be barred passage. WTI crude is lower anyway (-.34 at $76.95/bbl). Projected rate hike pricing retreat from late Thursday highs (*): Sep'26 at +11bp (+14.4bp), Oct'26 at 17.1bp (21.9bp), Dec'26 28bp (+33.8bp), Jan'27 32.1bp (38.1bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRV6 96.00/96.12/96.18/96.31 call condors, 3.25
- +15,000 SFRZ6 95.56/95.68 put spds, 2.0 ref 96.015
- -5,000 SFRQ6 96.18/96.31 call spds, 2.0 ref 96.18
- +5,000 OQX6 96.12/96.50 call spds 2.5 over 95.37/95.75 put spds vs. 95.985/0.40%
- +10,000 SFRU6 95.87/96.00 put spds, 0.5 ref 96.18
- -10,000 SFRZ6 95.56/95.81 put spds, 4.75 ref 96.01
- +5,000 SFRU6 95.87 puts, .5 ref 96.185
- +10,000 SFRU7 97.00/97.25 call spds, 2.25 ref 95.925
- 9,000 SFRZ6 96.06/96.18 put spds
- 1,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.25/96.37 2x3x1 call flys
- +25,000 SFRZ6 95.31/95.43/96.06/96.18 put condor vs. 95.62/95.75/96.25/96.37 put condor 1.0 net
- Block, 5,000 0QU6 95.50/95.68 put spds 2.0 ref 95.945
- +5,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.25/96.37/96.50 call condors, 4.25
- +5,000 SFRZ6 96.37/96.62 call spds, 1.25
- -20,000 SFRZ6 95.31/95.43/96.06/96.18 put condors, 6.5 ref 96.03
- +20,000 SFRU6 96.18/96.25/96.31 call flys, 1.75 ref 96.185
- -2,000 SFRM7 95.25 puts, 11.75 ref 95.94
- -5,000 SFRH7 97.50/98.00 call spds, 0.75 ref 95.96
- 4,000 SFRQ6 95.93/96.06 put spds ref 96.15
- 5,400 0QU6 95.37/96.31 call spd vs. 3QU6 96.00/96.37 call spd spd
- 2,600 0QQ6 96.00/96.12 call spds ref 95.88
- 6,000 SFRQ6 96.18/96.31 call spds
- 3,000 SFRZ6 95.43/95.56 put spds
- appr 11,000 SFRQ6 96.12/96.25 call spds
- 10,000 SFRZ6 95.56/95.68/96.06/96.18 put condors ref 95.97
- 1,500 SFRV6 95.81/96.00/96.12/96.25 broken put condors ref 95.97
- 1,600 SFRZ6 95.37/95.81/95.87 put trees ref 95.965
- Treasury Options: Note - wk1 options expire today
- -21,000 TYU6 109 calls, 14 vs. 108-19.5/0.36%
- +5,000 FVU6 106.5 puts, 22 ref 106-12.25
- +5,000 USU6 106 puts, 5 ref 109-17
- -5,000 TYV6 107.5/109.5 strangles, 48
- 7,800 FVU6 105/105.25/105.5 put trees ref 106-15.75
- 7,300 TYU6 109.5 calls, 10 ref 108-26.5
- 19,000 wk2 TY 108/108.5 2x1 put spds, 3 ref 108-28 to -27.5 (exp 8/14)
- 2,000 FVU6 106.5 straddles, ref 106-14.75
- Block: +43,073 wk1 TY 108.5 calls, 15 w/ +27,700 wk1 TY 108.5 puts, 9 vs. -15,075 TYU6 108-19.5
- over 85,300 wk1 TY 108.5 puts, 8 (OI 27,091)
- Block, 6,854 FVU6 106.75 calls, 9 ref 106-11.25
- over 11,800 wk1 TY 108.75 calls, 7 last ref 108-18.5 (exp today)
- 1,300 TYU6 108.5/108.75 strangles vs. TYV6 107/109.5 strangles
- 20,000 TYU6 108/108.5 put spds, 12 ref 108-17
- over 12,000 wk5 FV 107 calls, ref 106-07 to -07.5 (exp 8/12)
