US-EU: Dutch PM-EU Will See 50% Tariff Threat 'As Part Of Negotiations' w/US
May-23 14:05
Reuters reports comments from Dutch PM Dick Schoof following US President Donald Trump's threat of 50% tariffs on the EU. Schoof says that the EU's response is "up to the European Commission". Says that the EU will view Trump's announcement not as an endpoint, but "as part of the negotiations."
- Viewing the prospect of 50% tariffs as a negotiating tactic rather than a realistic threat would be a high-risk strategy for the EU. However, given the path that China experienced, of a ratcheting up of tariff threats followed by 'initial' discussions that in the event yielded a (relatively thin) agreement that allowed for a major de-escalation, Brussels may view Trump as utilising the same playbook against Brussels.
- Schoof says the Netherlands "benefits from open trade and minimal barriers", and that "We need a calm response and [to] prevent escalation."
- European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is due to hold a call with USTR Jamieson Greer at 11:30ET/16:30BST/17:30CET to discuss the EU's latest proposal (which the US is now almost guaranteed to reject). The call was arranged before Trump's announcement.
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US: WSJ Reports to Raise Focus on Imminent Bessent Appearance
Apr-23 13:57
These WSJ reports likely to raise the focus on Bessent's imminent appearance at the IIF in 4 minutes.
- He's set to be delivering keynote remarks and will "share his thoughts on the state of the global financial system". He will then hold a sit-down conversation with the IIF president. His remarks begin at 1000ET/1500BST and can be livestreamed here: https://vimeo.com/event/5054312/12805a306f
- His appearance follow closed-door remarks at an investor conference yesterday, where he supposedly said he sees de-escalation with China, with the current trade situation "unsustainable". Comments that will come into sharper focus given that WSJ report suggesting a "slashing" of import tariffs on Chinese goods - as well as a follow-up piece from the WSJ citing Bessent's influence in Trump deciding not to try to fire Powell.
BONDS: /STIR: EU & UK Markets Unwind Some Downside Growth Risks After WSJ Story
Apr-23 13:55
The move lower in bonds, as well as hawkish repricing in EUR & GBP STIRs, follows the WSJ report pointing to a potential dialling back of some of U.S. tariffs imposed on China.
- Those markets trade in a manner that points to less of a global growth shock, resulting in shallower central bank cutting cycles.
- ~60bp of further ECB cuts now priced through year-end vs. ~70bp at yesterday’s close.
- Meanwhile, ~85bp of BoE cuts are priced over the same horizon after showing over 90bp of cuts for much of today.
- Oil moves away from lows in sync.
US DATA: April Flash PMIs Disappoint Whilst Charge Inflation Accelerates
Apr-23 13:55
- Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 (cons 49.0) in April flash after 50.2 in March.
- Services PMI: 51.4 (cons 52.6) after 54.4 in March.
- Composite PMI: 51.2 (cons 52.0) after 53.5 in March, hitting a 16-month low.
- Highlights from the S&P Global PMI press release (in full here): "US business activity growth slowed to a 16-month low in April, according to flash PMI® survey data, with business expectations about the year ahead also dropping to one of the lowest levels seen since the pandemic. Prices charged for goods and services meanwhile rose at the sharpest rate for just over a year, with an especially steep increase reported for manufactured goods, linked to tariffs."
And specific detail on prices:
- "Average prices charged for goods and services rose in April at the sharpest rate for 13 months, increasing especially steeply in manufacturing (where the rate of inflation hit a 29-month high) but also picking up further pace in services (where the rate of inflation struck a seven-month high).
- Higher charges were attributed to rising costs, linked widely in turn to tariffs, rising import prices, and increased labor costs.
- Input costs in the manufacturing sector rose at a pace not seen since August 2022, as suppliers pushed through price hikes linked to tariffs, supply concerns and a weakened exchange rate.
- Service sector costs meanwhile rose at a slower rate than in March, though the increase was the second largest recorded over the past six months as higher raw material prices were accompanied by upward wage pressures."
