POWER: Dunkelflaute Situations Likely More Noticeable in Power System: Energinet
Dec-12 11:22
Danish TSO Energinet anticipates that situations of “Dunkelflaute” will not immediately occur more often in the coming years but will be more “noticeable for the electricity system when it occurs,” it said today.
- This is due, for example, that there will be less flexible generation in the grid and power plants that can bid in and produce power when needed.
- However, this situation is offset by the estimation that many more PV and wind farms will be built and although they will be producing at relatively low levels during a period of Dunkelflaute they can collectively make up a large part of demand.
- Denmark experienced a period of Dunkelflaute – which occurs when there is low wind and PV – around 4-12 Nov 2024.
- And European wind power generation plummeted by 67% on the week in early November while electricity demand continued to rise in colder winter temperatures. Power prices surged, with day-ahead power hitting €936/MWh in Germany.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Trend Needle Points North
Nov-12 11:20
- In FX, EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and Monday’s bearish start to the week plus today’s move lower, reinforces the current trend condition. Last week, the Nov 6 sell-off highlighted a resumption of the downtrend. The move down resulted in a breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low. Sights are on 1.0611, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle, and 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0831, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Today’s move lower has resulted in a print below key short-term support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 1.2762 next, the Aug 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2979, the 20-day EMA.
- The USDJPY trend condition is unchanged and remains bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 153.88, the Oct 28 high, has been breached, reinforcing a bullish condition. Sights are on 155.27, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing. Initial firm support is 151.76, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a short-term corrective cycle. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 149.84.
US TSY FUTURES: Most Contracts Saw Net Short Setting On Monday
Nov-12 11:14
OI data points to net short setting in most contracts during Monday’s holiday-thinned trade, with only apparent long cover in TY futures breaking the wider theme.
- Contract-specific net DV01 equivalent swings were relatively modest on the day.
- Price action centered on the inflationary impact of incoming President Trump's policy preferences.
| 11-Nov-24 | 08-Nov-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,527,719 | 4,521,779 | +5,940 | +213,958 |
FV | 6,343,715 | 6,334,805 | +8,910 | +371,134 |
TY | 4,566,619 | 4,570,487 | -3,868 | -244,391 |
UXY | 2,214,369 | 2,206,422 | +7,947 | +696,017 |
US | 1,845,278 | 1,833,018 | +12,260 | +1,580,373 |
WN | 1,755,462 | 1,753,359 | +2,103 | +421,786 |
|
| Total | +33,292 | +3,038,878 |
BUNDS: Testing immediate resistance
Nov-12 11:13
- The German Bund look to test the initial resistance seen at 132.73, and the 10yr Yield will also be looking at breaking below 2.30%.
- A clear break through, opens to 133.02, followed by 133.54.
- OAT and BTP are lagging, Yesterday's high in OATZ4 is at 125.31, so far printed a 125.30 high.
