US: Donald Trump Speech On Economy Underway Shortly

We suspect the Bank of Canada will be wary of making any major conclusions on the state of the economy based on its Q2 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE), given that the survey period was conducted between April 27-May 21 in advance of a sizeable drop in oil prices and de-escalation in the Middle East war. Overall sentiment was merely less negative with inflation expectations a little higher on the whole, and shouldn't impact the BOC's assessment of activity or price conditions.

• The most frequently cited portion of the report is on inflation expectations, and while this showed an uptick at longer horizons it needs to be considered within the context of that 70% of respondents expected the war to boost inflation in the next year.
• Households' median estimate of current inflation remained 3.9%; 1-year out expectations picked up to 4.1% from a 5-quarter low 4.0% prior; 2Y out rose to 4.0% from 3.6% however and 5Y to 3.4% from 3.0%. All are within recent ranges.
• The overall CSCE indicator improved slightly (-0.76 from -0.77) with the labour market index rising to a still-negative reading "as concerns about losing a job eased, particularly for those working in sectors highly sensitive to trade" though spending ticked lower (financial health was steady).
• Income, wage, and spending growth expectations for the next 12 months ticked up, however.

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing   
• RES 1: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4208 @ 20:56 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.4150 Low Jul 2
• SUP 2: 1.4110 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3966 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3837 Low Jun 3 

USDCAD remains bullish. A recent fresh cycle high reinforced the bull theme and the move higher has paved the way for a climb towards 1.4292, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb ’25 - Jan ’26 downleg. Note that the trend remains in overbought territory. A stronger corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. On the downside, the first important support lies at 1.4110, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.7223 High May 15
• RES 3: 0.7149/7201 High Jun 4 / High May 29
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6975/0.7037 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6932 @ 08:18 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 0.6865 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 0.6860 Low Apr 2 
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced a key support marked by the base of a bull channel drawn from the Apr ‘25 low - currently at 0.6927. A clear channel breakout would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 0.6833, the Mar 30 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is 0.7088, the Jun 15 high.