US: Donald Trump Remarks In Florida Underway Shortly

"FED'S KASHKARI: FED BALANCE SHEET IS BEST USED IN NEAR ZERO RATE SITUATION
30 Sep 2026 23:28:46 - FED'S KASHKARI: SIZE OF FED BALANCE SHEET IS A COMPLICATED QUESTION
30 Sep 2026 23:29:44 - FED'S KASHKARI: TOTALLY REASONABLE TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT BALANCE SHEET STRATEGY
30 Sep 2026 23:38:20 - FED'S KASHKARI: RISE IN BOND YIELDS HAVE BEEN A GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
30 Sep 2026 23:41:44 - FED'S KASHKARI: FED SWAP LINES ARE PART OF MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
30 Sep 2026 23:42:03 - FED'S KASHKARI: UNAWARE THERE'S ANY RETHINK ABOUT FED SWAP LINES
30 Sep 2026 23:45:02 - FED'S KASHKARI: DOESN'T FEEL CAN SECOND GUESS HOW MARKET INVESTMENT HAPPENS
30 Sep 2026 23:47:24 - FED'S KASHKARI: MODEST RANGE OF FED RATE HIKES UNLIKELY TO SLOW HYPERSCALAR INVESTMENT MUCH
30 Sep 2026 23:49:24 - FED'S KASHKARI: THE LABOR MARKET LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DETERIORATING" - RTRS 

Oil finished Wednesday higher but remains down on the week driven by signs that shipments from the Middle East are approaching pre-war levels. There is still no US-Iran agreement on Hormuz but talks continue with Reuters saying that Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi met with Qatari mediators on Tuesday and discussed the results in Tehran on Wednesday. Flows through Saudi’s east-west pipeline are resuming and clandestine shipments through the Strait are occurring.

• WTI rose 1.1% to $90.34/bbl after reaching $91.96. It is holding above $90 at the start of Thursday’s trading but is trending lower. It is currently around $90.04. It finished September up 7.5%.
• Brent increased 0.9% to $103.50/bbl (Nov 2026 contract expired 30/9) and rose 14.4% on the month.
• According to Reuters, the dispute between the US and Iran over the latter’s 7-day proposal is about sequencing and not content. Iran’s aim is a return to June’s MoU.
• JP Morgan estimates that Middle East oil exports are now around 17.5mbd or 98% of levels before the conflict began at the end of February. Importantly, refined products are only 58% of pre-war amounts though. Kpler confirmed sizeable deliveries on the market from the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg. However, vessels continue to be struck with the UKMTO reporting three tankers hit in the Strait on Tuesday.
• President Trump said a diesel export ban is still being considered but is concerned it will push up gasoline prices. Speculation may be contributing to US distillate destocking with the EIA reporting the lowest seasonal level with inventories down 2.5mn barrels last week.
• US refining utilisation is trending lower and was down 1.5pp to 92.5% after reaching 98% at the end of August, according to EIA data, which contributed to a decline in product stocks.
• While gasoil is down 0.2% this week, it rose 4.1% on Wednesday as shortages continue to push prices higher. US’ AAA reported retail diesel reaching $6.50, a record. 

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.07/128.42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 124.36 @ 16:22 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 124.00 - Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 123.60 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

Downside pressure resumed in JGB futures on the back of the inflationary pressures evident in US PPI and CPI data, and as markets jostle for position into the expected BoJ hike. For now, the trend structure remains bearish and the latest downleg resulted in the contract piercing support at 125.91, the Aug 17 low. This move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal a short-term reversal.