US DATA: Dept of Labor Likely To Publish Payrolls Next Week: Yahoo Finance

Nov-13 15:59

Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports on X.com citing the Department of Labor that the September nonfarm payrolls report will likely be out next week, and that the BLS will produce an updated release schedule "in the coming days".

  • A payrolls release next week would be in line with the 2013 post-shutdown schedule (it was published the following Tuesday), and corroborates comments this morning from the White House's Hassett.
  • However, an updated schedule "in the coming days" could imply a Friday/Monday/Tuesday update - versus 2013 when the BLS published its updated schedule at around 4:30pm ET on the day of reopening.
  • With other agencies depending in part on BLS data to compile their reports, we may have to wait a little while before getting updated schedules from other agencies (ie BEA).

Historical bullets

US-CHINA: Trump-Xi Meeting Likely, Tariffs Could Come Sooner Than Nov. 1 - Greer

Oct-14 15:59

MNI London: Reuters reporting comments from United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer speaking to CNBC on trade tensions with China. Greer notes that he expects US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet at APEC at the end of the month as planned. 

  • Greer confirms that the US and China had “staff-level” talks in Washington on Monday. Likely refers to a meeting between Chinese Vice Finance Minister Liao Min and his US Treasury counterpart.
  • The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement earlier, “Both sides have been in communications all along under the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and we had a working-level meeting just yesterday.”
  • Greer says, referring to the deadline for extending the tariff/export control truce, “November 1 tariffs depend on what China does… 100% US tariffs on China could come sooner.”
  • Greer says he thinks the US, “will be able work through issues with China over rare earth supply chains,” but will “have to see where it goes with China,” adds that it is, “hard for them to find an off ramp.” Greer warns that the US has export controls “we can impose if we need to.”
  • On October 12, Greer told Fox News that China had “wildly overstepped” in their imposition of rare earth export controls: "...this power grab by the Chinese won't be tolerated."
  • Greer's comments come as today, new port fees on US and Chinese ships that use each other’s docks take effect, and new US tariffs on lumber and furniture affecting China kick in. 

FRANCE: Fresh High For OAT Futures As Lecornu Seemingly Avoids Socialist Censure

Oct-14 15:56

With Vallaud remarks having concluded, Socialist MP Laurent Baumel says the party will not submit a censure motion.

  • From Le Parisien: "The PS deputy also states that the "Socialists and related" group will not submit a motion of censure against the Lecornu II government. ....Socialist Party elected officials will not vote for the motion of censure, assures MP Laurent Baumel "
  • OAT futures briefly reached a fresh session high of 122.79 during Vallaud's comments, now +65 ticks at 122.74.

FRANCE: PS' Vallaud Indicates No Censure Motion Against PM From Socialists

Oct-14 15:51

Leader of the Socialist Party (PS) in the National Assembly is delivering his group's response to PM Sebastien Lecornu's general policy speech, in which the PM announced the suspension of the imposition of the 2023 pension reforms until Jan 2028 and committed not to use Art. 49.3 of the Constitution to push through a budget without a vote in parliament. 

  • Vallaud welcomed the suspension saying, "It is a crack in the Macronist dogma. We take this situation as a victory as much as a first step that allows us to consider the next ones,"
  • Without stating it categorically, he also indicates that a censure motion will not be forthcoming from the PS. Vallaud says, "If we are all attached to the Republic, we must take this gamble of giving a budget, a fair budget to the country..." By allowing a debate and vote on the budget to take place, this would imply that the PS will not launch a censure motion tonight to be voted on 16 Oct.
  • Vallaud calls the proposed budget "unbearable and seriously insufficient." Adds, "There is no question of us accepting the doubling of medical deductibles, the freezing of the income tax scale, the freezing of benefits...and therefore the insane pace of deficit reduction that you have included in your budget ,