US: Democrats Have 'Significant Edge' w/Voters On Cost Of Living - Ipsos

• RES 4: 1.3658 High May 1 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.3590 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle
• RES 2: 1.3481/1.3558 High Jul 20 / 15 and a key S/T resistance 
• RES 1: 1.3395 High Jul 22  
• PRICE: 1.3301 @ 17:14 BST Jul 27
• SUP 1: 1.3300/3299 61.8% of the Jun 24 - Jul15 bull leg / Low Jul 23 
• SUP 2: 1.3268 Low Jul 2  
• SUP 3: 1.3239 76.4% retracement of the Jun 24 - Jul15 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3213 Low Jun 30

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone following and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Both the 20- and 50-day EMAs have been breached and, last Thursday’s extension resulted in a breach of a key short-term support at 1.3342, the Jul 14 low. The clear break of this level undermines the recent bull theme and highlights a stronger reversal towards 1.3239, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 1.3558, the Jul 15 high.

• On an intra-day basis, relative divergence is well explained by the 0.4% dip for GBPAUD, which slides to a one-month low of 1.9006. Australian central bank speak/CPI and the BOE decision should keep heightened attention on the cross this week.
• Positioning dynamics are likely exacerbating the NOK pullback given the krone's solid run through July. NOKSEK remains 0.85% lower to start the week, trading at 1.0057 at typing. The decline is considered corrective for now, with the main area of support noted around parity (aligning closely with the 20-day EMA).
• Elsewhere, USDJPY remains in close proximity to session highs of 163.78 and last week’s peak at 163.99. The rally last week prompted further FX jawboning from MoF officials, but this is having less and less effect on the underlying fundamental headwinds and bearish narrative surrounding the yen. This opens 164.50, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low.
• Aside from RBA Governor Bullock, it is another light calendar on Tuesday with US consumer confidence headlining, with the focus very much on Wednesday’s FOMC decision.

• +16,500 TYZ6 106.5/109.5 strangles, 1-24 vs. 108-17.5/0.10%