US: Democrat Chances Of Winning Senate Dips Amid Platner's Struggles In Maine
Jun-05 15:10
The prospect of Democrats flipping control of the Senate at the midterms in November has dipped amid a faltering campaign from likely Democratic party nominee, Graham Platner, in the crucial Maine Senate race. Maine is one of the 'core four' races that Democrats likely must win, along with Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia.
- According to Polymarket, Democrats were attributed a 55% chance of winning in mid-April. That has since dipped to 46%, likely due in part to allegations of Platner’s personal misconduct. As recently as late May, Democrats were given near 80% chance of winning the Maine seat. That has dropped to 55%.
- Despite Platner’s personal struggles, there is no sign he will drop out of the race ahead of the Democratic primary election on June 9, where he is running effectively unchallenged.
- Maine Governor Janet Mills, a political moderate and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) preferred candidate for the seat, suspended her campaign in late April, citing a lack of financing.
- WGME reported yesterday that Mill said, "People have the impression that I withdrew or dropped out, but I simply suspended active campaigning. I am still on the ballot."
- Indeed, Igor Bobic at NOTUS reports, “The Governor remains on the ballot, and in the wake of this week’s stories, people across Maine are reaching out to tell her they’re voting for her and encouraging her to get fully back into the race.”
Figure 1: Which party will win the US Senate in 2026
Source: Polymarket
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May-06 15:04
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IRAN: PBS-Trump: War Has 'Very Good Chance of Ending'
May-06 14:53
Speaking to PBS News, US President Donald Trump offered cautious optimism towards the prospect of the conflict with Iran ending. Asked if he felt optimistic towards a deal, Trump said "Yeah, I think so, but I felt that way before with them, so we'll see what happens, and we'll– I think we'll have a very good chance of making a deal again. If we don't, we'll go back to our old ways."
- Asked whether Iran sending its highly enriched uranium to the US 'perhaps' might be part of any agreement, Trump says "No, not perhaps. It goes to the United States."
- Trump says the prospect of special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner for any negotiations is "unlikely".
- Asked whether the US would target Chinese banks for buying Iranian oil, Trump says "Well, if we make this deal, we'll be lightening up on Iran with sanctions, et cetera, so we won't have to worry about this."
- Trump: "I think it's got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn't end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them. Very simple". Says he thinks it is possible to have the situation resolved by the time he travels to China next week.
- On the impact on gas prices when the conflict ends: "Well, we have 1,000 boats that are loaded up with oil that can't, you know, go anywhere. So, when that– It's gonna be a, it's gonna be an oil rush."
IRAN: Flurry of Trump Comments Keeps Focus on Iran Deal Progress
May-06 14:50
- A flurry of separate reports citing various US officials, including the President, keeps focus on the progress of the Iran deal and, in particular, any timings around a conclusion to the Operation.
- PBS quote Trump as saying the Iran War has a good chance of ending: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/trump-tells-pbs-news-that-iran-war-has-a-very-good-chance-of-ending
- Key part of that story is "The president said it's possible a deal could be struck to end the war before his trip to China next week." Trump is headed to Beijing on 14 - 15 May.
- Elsewhere, a CNN reporter tweets "The US & Iran are moving closer to an agreement on a short memorandum to end the Iran war, a regional source familiar with the negotiations said "The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise, two administration officials tell me. However, the officials also offered some skepticism regarding the optimism from Pakistan, noting that the Iranians have previously projected that they were close to an agreement — and during heightened tensions of the war — only for talks to fall apart at the last minute".
