GERMANY: Debt Brake Reform Commission Starts, Results Expected By Year-End
The "expert commission" for debt brake reform in Germany is taking up its work, the Finance Ministry announced earlier today. The commission "should develop specific regulatory proposals for modernising the debt rule" which then can be implemented by the government with or without changes, and consists of 15 members, some senior politicians but mostly academics.
- More fundamental debt brake reform follows the exemption of military spending above 1% of GDP from its calculations and the setup of a E500bln infrastructure fund earlier this year, and is in line with plans from the coalition agreement.
- "The changes are intended to enable additional investment in strengthening the German economy beyond the term of the special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality, while at the same time ensuring the sustainable development of public finances", the finance ministry comments.
- "The expert commission's proposal will take into account the requirements of the European Stability and Growth Pact and may include considerations for its further development."
- "The expert commission works independently, can draw on additional external expertise and is supported in its activities by the Federal Ministry of Finance."
- Results are expected by the end of this year.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $1.25B Swedish Export Cr 2Y SOFR Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 06/25 $1.25B #Swedish Export Cr 2Y SOFR+35
- 06/25 $750M #Resolution Life 10Y 6.75%
- 06/25 $Benchmark CIBC 4NC3
- 06/25 $Benchmark Welltower 5Y +95a, 10Y +115a
- 06/25 $Benchmark Honda 3Y +90a, 5Y +100a, 10Y +120a
- 06/25 $Benchmark Republic of Peru +10Y +155a, 30Y +175a
- 06/25 $750M Czechoslovak Grp 5.5NC2 7%a (dual currency w/ E500m)
- 06/25 $Benchmark CaixaBank 4NC3 +120a, 4NC3 SOFR, 6NC5 +135a, 11NC10 +150a
FED: Boston's Collins Still Eyes Cuts Resuming This Year
Boston Fed's Collins (2025 FOMC Voter, leans dovish) sounds as patient as before on rate cuts in a speech Wednesday (link). She continues to see rate cuts later this year from the currently "modestly restrictive" stance but like the vast majority of her colleagues, she highlights prevailing uncertainty and wants to see more data before coming to that conclusion. Some key quotes:
- "calibrating appropriate policy is challenging in contexts when projections of inflation call for a tighter policy stance while forecasts of real activity call for a looser one. The overall solid current conditions enable the Fed to take the time to carefully assess the incoming data and their implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks to inflation and economic activity. Indeed, the recent back-and-forth in tariff policy, and the potential for more changes to come, validate the careful approach I call “active patience” that the Fed has taken since the beginning of the year."
- "While I continue to expect it will be appropriate to resume gradual policy normalization later this year, my outlook could change significantly as events unfold, and the economic impact of changes in various government policies comes into sharper focus. Much will depend on whether the “price shock” from tariffs dissipates quickly, without derailing inflation expectations, and on whether the associated slowdown in real activity is limited. For now, however, I see the current monetary policy stance as modestly restrictive, and well positioned to address a range of possible outcomes."
- "I continue to see upside risks to my outlook for inflation and downside risks to my outlook for economic growth and the labor market. And I do not rule out scenarios with larger and more persistent tariff effects on inflation."
NATO: Trump Speaks On Defence Spending & Middle East After NATO Summit
US President Donald Trump delivering his presser at the end of the NATO summit in The Hague. Livestream here. Calls the meeting a "highly successful summit", "highly productive", touts "major progress" and says "tremendous things have been accomplished" at the summit.
- Says that the major focus of the meeting was getting spending of allies up to 5% of GDP spending on defence and for those countries to share responsibility for Europe's defence, says it will be known as the 'Hague Defence Commitment'. Says that additional money should be spent on "very serious military hardware, not bureaucracy".
- On Iran, Trump says 'Iran won't get access to nuclear material'.
- Trump's presser comes after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which is believed to have lasted around 40-50 minutes.
