FED: "*DALY: RATES COULD BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTIVE TO NEUTRAL" - bbg

• Firmer on the open - rate hike projections continue to consolidated vs late Tuesday levels (*) following the Sep FOMC meeting minutes: Oct'26 at +4.6bp (+5.1bp), Dec'26 +24.7bp (+25.4bp), Jan'27 +33.9bp (+35.6bp), Mar'27 +49.8bp (+52.2bp).
• December OIS projection dipped below 100% briefly this afternoon - is back near 100% again after the minutes show most Fed officials saw another 25bp hike by year end.

A new survey from YouGov has found, “37% of Americans pick inflation/prices from a list of 15 issues as the one most important to them, the largest share since the poll added the option in July 2022. The share saying inflation is their top issue is up from 32% in last week's poll and from a 2026 average of 29%.”

• YouGov notes, “Economic issues are weak points for Donald Trump. Of the issues whose handling by Trump the Economist / YouGov Poll has tracked since June, inflation/prices is his worst: Only 26% of Americans strongly or somewhat approve of the way he is handling it and 69% disapprove, for a net approval of -43. The economy is the area with Trump's next lowest net approval at -36, followed by government spending at -34.”
• Silver Bulletin wrote in a recent update of the outlet's presidential approval rating tracker: “Things are [looking] bearish for Trump on the issues. Net approval of how he’s handled trade (-29.0) and the economy (-33.2) are both at all-time lows. Trump’s inflation approval has dropped so much — to net -48.5 — that we’ve once again had to adjust the y-axis on our issue approval chart downward.”

Figure 1: “Which of these is the most important issue for you? (% of U.S. adult citizens)”

Source: YouGov

• Treasuries hold mixed - markets still digesting the Sep minutes.
• Curves twist steeper (2s10s +3.165 at 51.137) with the short end holding modest gains, 10s-30s progressively weaker.
• Currently, TYZ6 trades +.5 at 104-16.5 (well above morning low of 103-30.5), yield +.0065 at 5.2858%.
• A bear cycle in Treasuries remains in play despite the stabilisation phase so far this week. The Z6 contract is still trading closer to recent cycle lows, which reinforces the bear trend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 103-15+, a Fibonacci projection.
• Cross asset: Bbg US$ index bid but off highs (BBDXY +2.94 at 1223.13; WTI crude weaker: -$1.23 at $88.21/bbl; stocks mildly weaker SPX emini -17.0 at 7857.0