FED: Daly: Incoming Data Looks Promising, Policy In A Good Place
Jan-15 18:26
SF Fed's Daly ('27 voter) has posted a chain on X (link), noting that incoming data looks promising but with the Fed needing to be deliberate as it calibrates policy to achieve its full mandate.
- "The Federal Reserve’s job is to serve the American people. In monetary policy that means achieving our dual mandate goals of price stability and full employment.
- Last year the FOMC reduced the policy rate by 75 basis points, responding to significant slowing in the labor market and milder than expected inflationary pressures.
- As we start the year, inflation and the labor market remain front and center. The incoming data look promising.
- Projections for growth are solid, the labor market is stabilizing, and inflation is expected to improve over the course of the year.
- Of course, there is still a lot of uncertainty, with risks to both sides of our mandated goals.
- So, we will need to be deliberate as we calibrate policy to achieve both price stability and full employment. Fortunately, policy is in a good place to respond to however the economy evolves.
- As we determine our next steps, we will need to focus beyond any data print, looking further ahead and prioritizing listening—to businesses, households, and communities—to fully understand the economy."
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GLOBAL: WSJ Headlines on Panama Ports Deal and US/China Trade Talks
Dec-16 2025 18:06
- The Wall Street Journal have published an article indicating that the White House consider China's new demand regarding a Panama Ports deal as unacceptable.
- "President Trump's push to loosen China's influence in the Panama Canal has hit a wall now that Beijing is demanding that China's largest shipping company get a controlling stake in a deal to sell dozens of ports to a BlackRock-led group."
- "The deal is now at an intractable impasse, people involved in the talks say. A senior Chinese official said that Beijing aims to make control of the ports a negotiating point in the U.S. and China's broader talks over trade and tariffs." (Wall Street Journal)
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension
Dec-16 2025 18:00
- RES 4: 1.1919 - High Sep 17 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.1848 High Sep 18
- RES 2: 1.1813 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.1804 High Dec 16
- PRICE: 1.1769 @ 16:18 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.1649 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1591 Low Dec 2
- SUP 3: 1.1556 Low Nov 26
- SUP 4: 1.1491 Low Nov 21
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains reinforce this theme. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlighted a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.1813 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 1.1649, the 20-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear breach of the EMA would be bearish and signal a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, Fed Speak, 20Y Re-Open
Dec-16 2025 17:54
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 12/17 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (4.8%, --)
- 12/17 0815 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12/17 0830 Chicago Fed CARTS Retail Indicator
- 12/17 0900 Manheim Used Vehicle Prices
- 12/17 0905 NY Fed Williams opening remarks FX conf, livestreamed
- 12/17 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
- 12/17 1230 Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated discussion (no text)
- 12/17 1300 US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond re-open (912810UQ9)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
