Treasuries hold mixed - markets still digesting the Sep minutes.
Curves twist steeper (2s10s +3.165 at 51.137) with the short end holding modest gains, 10s-30s progressively weaker.
Currently, TYZ6 trades +.5 at 104-16.5 (well above morning low of 103-30.5), yield +.0065 at 5.2858%.
A bear cycle in Treasuries remains in play despite the stabilisation phase so far this week. The Z6 contract is still trading closer to recent cycle lows, which reinforces the bear trend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 103-15+, a Fibonacci projection.
Cross asset: Bbg US$ index bid but off highs (BBDXY +2.94 at 1223.13; WTI crude weaker: -$1.23 at $88.21/bbl; stocks mildly weaker SPX emini -17.0 at 7857.0
FED: Instant Answers: Most Officials See Another Hike Likely By Year End
Oct-07 18:00
Did participants discuss reducing the number of regularly scheduled policy-decision meetings to fewer than eight per year? NO
Did a majority of participants support reducing the number of regularly scheduled policy-decision meetings? NA
If a reduction in policy-decision meetings was supported, did participants support all eight FOMC meetings to remain on the calendar, with some meetings designated as non-decision meetings? NA
Did participants suggest one or more quarterly / SEP meetings (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) could cease to be regularly scheduled policy-decision meetings? NA
Did a majority of participants judge that monetary policy was not yet sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent in a timely manner, after the September hike? "With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end."
Did participants discuss changing the setting of IORB relative to the federal funds target range? NA
MNI: MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR - MINUTES
Oct-07 18:00
MOST FED OFFICIALS SEE ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR - MINUTES
MNI: ALL PARTICIPANTS VIEWED HIKE AS APPROPRIATE IN SEPT
OFFICIALS EXPECT PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN NEAR TERM
MANY SAW FINANCIAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF GROWTH
SOME CONCERNED THAT INFLATION IMPACTING EXPECTATIONS
MANY SAW HIKE AS PRUDENT ON RISK-MANAGEMENT GROUNDS
COUPLE INCREASED THEIR ESTIMATE OF NEUTRAL RATE
FEW OBSERVED IMPORTANCE OF PLANNING FOR MARKET STRESS