EU AUTOMOTIVE: Daimler Truck (DTRGR): 4Q25 Results
Mar-12 12:42
Credit neutral.
- Revenue was in line with BBG consensus.
- Adj. EBIT beat by 5%.
- For FY25, industrial revenue was at the midpoint of guidance with a 10% YoY fall. Adj. EBIT was 2% shy. Industrial margin fell 110bp to 7.8%.
- Industrial FCF fell to €1.8bn from €3.2bn as expected.
- Net liquidity fell to €7.7bn from €8.6bn with dividends and other items exceeding FCF.
- The previously announced Asia venture with Toyota, ARCHION, will be effective from April 1st. That is now discontinued operations. It expects €1.5-2bn total proceeds from reducing its stake to 25% from 50% over time. Proceeds will support buybacks that were shelved last year due to market conditions.
- FY26 guidance midpoints (consensus):
- 13% rebound in NA unit sales (0%). That would still be 16% below 2024 volumes.
- Adj. EBIT from continued ops down 1% (0%). Tariff effects will be for the full year, offsetting higher volumes.
- FCF €2.7-3.2bn, including €1.5bn from ARCHION (€1.8bn unadjusted).
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INTERNATIONAL TRADE: USTR On USMCA, China Trade, India & Indonesia Deals
Feb-10 12:33
Speaking to Fox Business Network, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says that the US is entering talks with Mexico "right now" regarding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal re-negotiation. Says that negotiations will continue on a bilateral basis. Acknowledges that amid cratering ties with Canada, talks on the USMCA with Ottawa are "more challenging". Trump's latest threat to stop the opening of a bridge linking Canada and the US risks further deterioration, with Greer saying the President has 'valid concerns'.
- On trade with India, Greer claims that India is "very committed" to the interim deal announced last week. Significant questions remain on the details of the agreement in relation to oil, energy and agricultural products. Greer claims that India has already "started winding down purchases of Russian energy", and that the US has talked to the gov't of PM Narendra Modi about oil from Venezuela. Says as part of a change in global trade flows, India could be a stationg to shift supply chains around.
- Greer says that he has regular talks with his Chinese counterparts, and that more discussions should be expected ahead of the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in April. Calls the US-China trade relationship "stable".
- Claims that he expected Indonesia to be the next "big one" in terms of trade deals, with the finalisation of an agreement "in the next couple of weeks." Indonesia’s envoy for International Trade and Multilateral Cooperation, Mari Pangestu, said to CNA last week that Jakarta would be looking for preferential access to US markets below the proposed 19% 'reciprocal' tariff previously announced by Trump.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-10 12:21
- EUR/USD: Feb11 $1.1820-30(E1.2bln), $1.2000(E1.8bln); Feb12 $1.1750(E1.3bln); Feb13 $1.1800(E2.7bln), $1.1850(E2.5bln), $1.1950(E2.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb11 Y156.45-60($2.2bln); Feb13 Y155.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($1.2bln), Y158.50($1.6bln), Y159.00($2.0bln), Y160.00($3.1bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb13 $0.6800(A$1.6bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb12 Cny6.9000($1.1bln); Feb13 Cny6.9700($1.2bln)
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: SOFR White Pack
Feb-10 12:12
- 4,000 SOFR White packs (SFRH6-SFRZ6) +0.005 at 0658:57ET, most likely swap-tied seller with spreads running wider in the short end
