TURKEY: Current Account in Surplus for Fifth Consecutive Month
- Turkey recorded a surplus of $1.88bn in its current account in October (Est: +$1.30bn; Prior: +3.01bn), marking the fifth straight months of surplus. Travel income amounted to more than $5bn over the month, contributing to the bulk of the surplus in services, while a deficit of around $3.5bn was recorded in goods trade.
- The US continues to engage with Turkey regarding the situation in Syria following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, the Pentagon said on Wednesday as per Hurriyet. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to arrive in Ankara on Friday to meet with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan for discussions centered on post-Assad Syria.
- The chairman of business lobby Tusiad, Orhan Turan, said Turkey’s public institutions should join the fight against inflation, and that tight monetary policy should continue.
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: DMO Consultation Long-Term Syndication Findings
The DMO has released the minutes of yesterday’s consultations with gilt market participants. The findings surrounding syndication preferences are outlined below, we will provide further colour in upcoming posts:
Long-Term
- There was GEMM support for “the launch of a new 2045 maturity gilt, with some calls for a re-opening of 4 3/4% 2040, which will become a medium maturity gilt in February 2025. There were also isolated proposals for the launch of new long conventional gilts maturing in 2041, 2044 or 2048.”
- Meanwhile, investors seemed a little more balanced. “Some supported issuance in the 20-year area with some others preferring the 15-year area of the curve. A number advocated for a re-opening of 4 3/8% 2040 prior to the gilt transitioning into the medium maturity sector in February 2025. There were also isolated calls for other maturities including 2044, 2045, 2048 and 2049.”
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: DMO Consultation Medium-Term Syndication Findings
The DMO has released the minutes of yesterday’s consultations with gilt market participants. The findings surrounding syndication preferences are outlined below, we will provide further colour in upcoming posts:
Medium-Term
- GEMMS showed “unanimous support for the launch of a new 10-year gilt to mature in 2035, with respondents suggesting January, March, April or June for the month in which the new gilt should mature.”
- Similarly, “those investors who expressed a preference were supportive of the launch of a new conventional gilt maturing in 2035, with January, March, April or June proposed as potential months in which the gilt could mature."
SILVER TECHS: Pierces Trendline Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.252 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 31.283 @ 08:08 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: $29.680 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal continues to weaken. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced $30.446, a trendline support. A clear break would expose $29.680, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.
