INDONESIA: Country Wrap: FX Reserves Down in March.
* Indonesia's April net foreign reserves fell to $152.47 billion from $157.09 billion in March, ac...
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | - | BoE's Lombardelli 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | - | BoE's Breeden at MNI ‘UK economic and Financial Stability prospects’ |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | Mar | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly activity data |
| 11-Apr | - | - | BoE's Saporta 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | - | - | BoE's Greene ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’ |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | CPI / PPI |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0730 | FY25/26 | DMO remit revision following FY24/25 CGNCR |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Apr | 0001 | Apr | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Retail Sales |
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But At Bests, RBA Gov Speech Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -11.5) are cheaper but at session highs after a paring of yesterday’s losses by US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. Cash US tsys are showing a bull-steepener, with benchmark yields 2-5bps lower.
- US economic data remains light today. Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC minutes, followed by CPI data on Thursday and PPI on Friday.
- Domestically, Westpac's measure of consumer confidence sank 6% m/m in April to 90.1 down from 95.9 in March, which had been boosted by February's rate cut.
- Meanwhile, NAB's March business survey was little changed from February with confidence down 1 point to -3 and conditions up 1 point to +4.
- Cash ACGBs are 4-11bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +8bps.
- Swap rates are 3-8bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -3 to -6.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 4-8bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 46% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Consumer Inflation Expectation data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond tomorrow.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 107.835 2.000 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 / Psychological round number
- RES 2: 107.648 76.4% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- RES 1: 107.505 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- PRICE: 107.425 @ 06:02 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 107.235 Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: 107.120 High MAr 4 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 3: 106.969 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27
Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone despite Monday’s volatile price action. The contract has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. This confirmed a full reversal of the Apr 3 - 6 impulsive sell-off. The break also highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800 next. Initial firm support is seen at 106.969, the 20-day EMA.
