INDONESIA: Country Wrap: FX Reserves Down in March.
May-08 05:23
- Indonesia’s April net foreign reserves fell to $152.47 billion from $157.09 billion in March, according to a statement on Indonesia’s central bank website and is showing the impact of the Central Bank having to defend the currency during periods of significant volatility. Despite the fall, reserves remain high relative to history given the BI flexibility in managing the IDR (source MNI Market News)
- Indonesia’s new sovereign wealth fund intends to raise debt, but “where and how is something we need to study,” says Arief Budiman, Danantara’s managing director of finance. Danantara’s capital funding will mainly come from the state-owned enterprises it manages. For investment, the fund will seek to attract partners, including from the capital market (source BBG)
- The Jakarta Composite has had a very strong period and after eight successive days of gains, fell today by -0.45%.
- The rupiah was the best performing regional currency today gaining +.40% to 16,470
- Yields fell across the curve with the 10YR down -2bps at 6.84%
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
Apr-08 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | - | BoE's Lombardelli 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | - | BoE's Breeden at MNI ‘UK economic and Financial Stability prospects’ |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | Mar | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly activity data |
| 11-Apr | - | - | BoE's Saporta 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | - | - | BoE's Greene ‘The dynamics of monetary policy’ |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | CPI / PPI |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0730 | FY25/26 | DMO remit revision following FY24/25 CGNCR |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Apr | 1100 | Apr | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Apr | 0001 | Apr | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Retail Sales |
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But At Bests, RBA Gov Speech Tomorrow
Apr-08 05:20
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -11.5) are cheaper but at session highs after a paring of yesterday’s losses by US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. Cash US tsys are showing a bull-steepener, with benchmark yields 2-5bps lower.
- US economic data remains light today. Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's release of the March FOMC minutes, followed by CPI data on Thursday and PPI on Friday.
- Domestically, Westpac's measure of consumer confidence sank 6% m/m in April to 90.1 down from 95.9 in March, which had been boosted by February's rate cut.
- Meanwhile, NAB's March business survey was little changed from February with confidence down 1 point to -3 and conditions up 1 point to +4.
- Cash ACGBs are 4-11bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +8bps.
- Swap rates are 3-8bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -3 to -6.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 4-8bps firmer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 46% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Consumer Inflation Expectation data and a speech by RBA Governor Bullock.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond tomorrow.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Trend Needle Points North
Apr-08 05:18
- RES 4: 107.835 2.000 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 / Psychological round number
- RES 2: 107.648 76.4% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- RES 1: 107.505 50.0% retracement of Monday’s high-low range
- PRICE: 107.425 @ 06:02 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 107.235 Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: 107.120 High MAr 4 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 3: 106.969 20-day EMA
- SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27
Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone despite Monday’s volatile price action. The contract has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. This confirmed a full reversal of the Apr 3 - 6 impulsive sell-off. The break also highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.800 next. Initial firm support is seen at 106.969, the 20-day EMA.
