MALAYSIA: Country Wrap:  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI to Finish Down for the Week.

The deterioration in the vacancy market may be stabilising with 3-month momentum in SEEK job ads back to around neutral in September/October. The applicant-per-job ratio may have peaked in August but its growth has been moderating since mid-2023. October ABS jobs data print on Thursday and will be monitored for signs of steadiness after the RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”.

• SEEK jobs ads fell 3.1% m/m in October following three consecutive monthly rises, to be down 10.7% y/y after 11.2% y/y. November will show if this weakness is a new trend. The index level is still 5.9% above December 2019.
• SA and WA saw an increase in job ads as did advertising & media, engineering, design and financial services. Retail & consumer products fell 8.8% m/m though consistent with weak household spending.
• Job ads-per-applicant in September fell 0.9% m/m, the first monthly drop since July 2022, to be up 43.3% y/y after 48.8% y/y. But labour supply remains plentiful.

Australia SEEK jobs ads %

Source: MNI - Market News/SEEK

G10 FX moves have been very muted so far in Wednesday trade. The BBDXY index sits little changed in latest dealings, near 1280, modestly off cycle highs from Tuesday US trade. We have the US CPI print later. 

• The early bias was for USD gains, albeit remaining within recent ranges. Sentiment started to stabilize after the stronger than expected CNY fixing, which aided the yuan.
• AUD/USD got to 0.6517, close to recent lows, but sits back at 0.6535/40 in latest dealings, little changed for the session. Earlier data showed Q3 wages print below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. Tomorrow we have jobs data in Australia.
• NZD/USD is up a touch, last near 0.5930.
• In Japan, PPI data rose more than forecast and is back above 3% y/y, which should help underpin headline CPI momentum. Import prices were still down in y/y terms, but if USD/JPY holds around current levels, we could see that trend reverse by year end/early 2025.
• USD/JPY has drifted a little higher through the course of the session, but couldn't test through 155.00 (highs 154.94). The above data did little to boost yen sentiment.
• In the cross asset space, US equity futures sit modestly lower. The regional equity backdrop has mostly been weaker. US TSY yields are closed to unchanged.
• Later October US CPI prints and is expected to show a pickup in headline to 2.6% y/y while core should stay at 3.3%. There are also October real earnings and budget data, as well as France’s Q3 unemployment rate. The Fed’s Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Musalem, Schmid and BoE’s Mann appear.

Earlier data showed Japan import prices down -2.2% y/y in Oct, little changed from September's -2.5% pace. Still, in m/m terms import prices were up 3.0% m/m, the first gain since July of this year. 

• Y/Y momentum in import prices may soon return to positive territory. The chart below overlays import prices against y/y changes in USD/JPY.
• If USD/JPY holds at current levels into year end (near 155.00) it will have the y/y change at nearly +10% by end December, which is the extended line shown in the chart below.
• Today's data showed all import prices up in m/m terms by sub-category.
• The main BoJ focus point is on domestic service price pressures. As our policy team noted earlier today "BOJ officials are encouraged by the October price revisions as firms are transferring higher labour costs to retail prices. They will now focus on the October nationwide CPI due out on Nov. 22 to examine services prices."
• Still, higher import costs via a weaker yen, could still impact BoJ thinking over coming months.  

Fig 1: Japan Import Prices & USD/JPY Y/Y Changes 

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg