INDIA: Country Wrap: CPI to Tick up in August
Sep-12 2025 05:22
Market Summary: The NIFTY 50 is higher by +0.35% Friday morning, and up +1.3% for the week as the Rupee rises +0.15% to 88.30 to be flat for the week. Bonds have done very little for the week with the 10-Yr where it began at 6.46%
- With data due out later today, India's August Year on Year CPI is forecast to tick higher, whilst remaining below the RBI target of 4%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s formal inflation target is 4%, with a tolerance band of 2% to 6%. As of September, this framework remains in place with the RBI working to keep headline inflation around the 4% midpoint while ensuring price stability and supporting growth in the Indian economy. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, "CPI inflation for the current year 2025-26 is now projected at 3.1%. This is down from 3.7% that we had earlier projected in June. In July, CPI hit the lowest since 2017 at 1.55% and is forecast to move higher to +2.11% in the August release. (source MNI)
- Days after Donald Trump shifted his tone on India, his pick for the next American ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, said the president invited Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal next week to meet with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington. (source NDTV Profit)
- Adani Group has ceased to berth vessels sanctioned by the US, European Union and the UK at its multiple ports by issuing orders to this effect to the respective port authorities, and vessels operating at high seas. (source Financial Express)
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 2025 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Aug | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | IP / GDP 2nd Est / Employment |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 21-Aug | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 21-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 22-Aug | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 22-Aug | 1000 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Plans Afoot to Subsidize Consumer Loans
Aug-13 2025 05:17
- China plans to subsidize interest payments on eligible personal consumer loans from Sept. 2025 to Aug. 2026, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. Subsidy applies to loans under 50,000 yuan for consumption, and designated big-ticket items over 50,000 yuan — including autos, education, and healthcare. China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities. (source BBG)
- resident Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have expressed their opposition to unilateralism and protectionism, and pledged to promote the greater development of bilateral ties. In a phone conversation between the two heads of state on Tuesday, Xi told Lula that China is ready to work with Brazil to set an example of unity and self-reliance among major countries of the Global South, and to jointly build a more just world and a more sustainable planet. (source China Daily)
- China and Hong Kong markets are also higher. The CSI 300 last around +0.90%. The HSI is up around +1.90%, with the tech sub index +2.35%.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1350 Per USD; Estimate 7.1768
- Ten year government bond yields are modestly lower with the 10-year at 1.72%
JGBS: Cheaper After Poor 5Y Auction
Aug-13 2025 05:05
JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -26 compared to settlement levels, after today’s disappointing 5-year auction.
- Today’s 5-year JGB auction showed poor signals on demand. The low price came in line with expectations at 99.72, and the bid-to-cover ratio declined to 2.9616x from 3.5411x. Meanwhile the tail widened slightly to 0.03 from 0.02. The result aligns with the poor demand signals seen at this month’s 10-year auction. With yields higher and the 2s/5s curve steeper than last month, today’s outcome represents a deterioration in overall demand conditions.
- "JAPAN'S AKAZAWA: NOT BAD IF TRUMP EXEC ORDER COMES BY MID SEPT, US CAN'T GET INVESTMENT HELP IF PROMISES NOT KEPT. JAPAN COULD INCREASE ACTUAL US INVESTMENT PERCENTAGE, 1-2%, INVESTMENT FOLLOWS PAST CASES, COULD BE HIGHER" - BBG
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's twist-steepener.
- Cash JGBs are showing a twist-flattening, with benchmark yields 3bps higher to 2bps lower. The benchmark 5-year yield is 2.6bps higher at 1.069% versus the cycle high of 1.19%.
- Swaps rates flat to 1bp higher, with swap spreads tighter out to the 20-year.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty ahead of Q2 GDP on Friday.
