INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Budget Deficit Up
* Indonesia expects to post a much bigger budget deficit this year due to weak revenue collections...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3493 @ 06:27 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 1.3394 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3335/3232 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow retracement is considered corrective. First key support lies at 1.3394, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3232. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 02-Jun | 0930 | Apr | BOE Lending / M4 |
| 02-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02-Jun | 1500 | --- | BOE's Mann fireside chat at Fed's Conference |
| 02-Jun | 1800 | --- | BOE Greene Fireside Chat |
| 03-Jun | 1015 | --- | BOE Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Mann At TSC |
| 04-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (Final) |
| 05-Jun | 0845 | --- | BOE's Greene Opening Remarks at Econdat Conference |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | BOE Decision Maker Panel data |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Jun | 1040 | --- | BOE Greene On Central Bank Decoupling Panel |
| 10-Jun | 0001 | May | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 10-Jun | 0700 | Apr / May | Labour Market Survey |
| 11-Jun | 0730 | --- | BOE Saporta On Approaches To QT |
| 11-Jun | 1230 | --- | Chancellor Reeves presents Spending Review to Parliament |
INDONESIA: Inflation Lower Than Expected, Keeps Rate Cut Option Open
May headline inflation was lower than expected printing at 1.6% y/y down from 1.95% as fresh food prices fell substantially (-1.2% y/y). Core also eased coming in at 2.4% y/y from 2.5%, the lowest since January. Bank Indonesia cut rates 25bp in May and with inflation well contained within its target corridor as well as possibly moderating may allow it to ease policy further if the rupiah strengthens.
- USDIDR is slightly higher today at 16305 but has fallen 0.6% since the May 21 decision, although against its trading partners the rupiah is a bit lower. The next announcement is on June 18.
- Water rates, gold jewellery, cooking oil, rice and cigarettes put downward pressure on annual inflation.
Indonesia CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
