CHINA: Country Wrap: BBG Survey Sees GPD at 4.5%

JGB futures are stronger, +16 compared to the settlement levels, hovering just below Tokyo session highs.

• (MNI) The BoJ board is expected to keep its 0.5% policy interest rate unchanged at the two-day meeting ending May 1, as policymakers monitor the economic and inflationary impact of recent U.S. trade policies and volatile markets.
• Greater clarity on the economic outlook – particularly regarding the U.S. economy and Fed policy – is expected by July, when the BoJ releases its updated medium- to long-term growth and inflation forecasts. Should the U.S. fall into recession, it would likely remove any chance of a BoJ rate hike this year.
• Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's solid gains. GDP, ISM Manufacturing and NFM payrolls are the main events in this week's US calendar. Trump's first 100 days in office speech is tomorrow.
• Cash JGBs are 1-2bps richer out to the 20-year benchmark and 1-3bps cheaper beyond. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.1bps lower at 1.321% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
• Swap rates are 1-3bps lower. Swap spreads are mixed.
• Tomorrow, the local market is closed for the Showa Day holiday. 

• RES 4: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 1: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1376 @ 06:10 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.1308 Low Apr 23
• SUP 2: 1.1217 20-day EMA and a key support    
• SUP 3: 1.1144/0968 High Apr 3 / 50-day EMA and a pivot level     
• SUP 4: 1.0805 Low Apr 3  

The latest pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1217. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and near Sydney session highs on a data-light day.

• Cash US tsys are slightly mixed, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's solid gains.
• The focus of the week locally will be on Wednesday’s Q1 CPI, which is forecast to show the RBA’s preferred trimmed mean falling below the top of the 2-3% target band for the first time since Q4 2021. This should signal another 25bp cut on May 20. Retail sales are on Friday, and the Federal Election Saturday.
• Cash ACGBs are 4-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -8bps.
• Swap rates are 6-8bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing -2 to +4.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 12% probability, with a cumulative 118bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see a speech from RBA Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) on Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Friday.