GBP: Corrective Phase Lower Hinges on BoE Pricing, DXY Downtrend
Jun-10 08:04
GBP/USD's post-data sell-off is holding, but the sustainability of a corrective phase lower will hinge on conviction in BoE pricing and a nascent downtrendline in the USD Index.
- Weakness in GBP came in two phases this morning, first on the soft payrolls data, and then again on the SONIA open, with GBPUSD nearing 1.3462, its 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA for direction, at 1.3299. EURGBP meanwhile has cleared 0.8440, its 50-day EMA and key resistance, exposing 0.8541, the May 2 high.
- The sustainability of the move hinges in the short-term on BoE pricing: we note that OIS markets are returning closer to a further 2 x 25bps rate cuts this year: 46bp of cuts priced through December, with the next 25bp step almost fully priced at the September MPC.
- Should this pricing stick (or extend), the USD Index will come into sharper focus, with today's USD relief rally prompting the DXY to narrow the gap with a key downtrendline drawn off the early February highs - today at 99.575, a level across which markets were rangebound in the aftermath of Trump's Liberation Day announcement. This level could prove key into the US CPI print tomorrow.
Figure 1: Sustainability of GBP/USD Dip Could Hinge on USD Index Downtrendline
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
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MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
May-09 20:17
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
May-09 20:15
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
May-09 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
