BRAZIL: Copom Decision Expected at 2230BST / 1730ET

• RES 3: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 95.671 - 38.2% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 95.670 - High Jun 25 and 29
• PRICE: 95.610 @ 19:00 BST Jul 06
• SUP 1: 95.365 - Low Jun 09
• SUP 2: 95.195 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 94.665 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The current uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures remains intact. MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position and this highlights a dominant uptrend. A break above 95.671, the 38.2% retracement of the downleg posted off the October ‘25 high on the continuation contract, would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a  stronger reversal lower would instead signal scope for a move towards 95.365, the Jun 9 low.

• RES 4: 1.3509 High May 25     
• RES 3: 1.3485 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3399 50.0% retracement  of the May 1 - Jun 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3385 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 1.3387 @ 19:32 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.3219/3140 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov 5 ’25 and a key support

The strong rally in GBPUSD last week resulted in a breach of the 50–day EMA at 1.3365. The average remains intact for now, however, a clear break of it would undermine the recent bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. It is still possible that recent gains are a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 1.3140, the Jun 24 low and bear trigger.

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: mixed wing trade on modest overall volumes as US markets return from 4th of July holiday. Underlying also narrowly mixed: curves flatter as Bonds pared early gains to finish near lows. Projected rate hike pricing near steady vs. early morning levels (*): Jul'26 at +6.3bp (+6bp), Sep'26 at +16.9bp (+16.1bp), Oct'26 at +21.8bp (+20.4bp), Dec'26 +30.1bp (+29bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 SFRQ6 96.25/96.31 call spds, 0.75 ref 96.13
  • +5,000 SFRU6 95.81 puts, 1.5 ref 96.125
  • 5,500 SFRU6 95.56/95.68/96.12/96.25 put condors ref 96.125
  • +25,000 SFRZ6 97.50 calls, 1.75 ref 96.00
  • +2,000 OQZ6 96.25/96.50 call spds 4.5 over 95.25/95.50 put spds ref 96.10
  • +10,000 SFRZ6 97.50 calls, 1.75 ref 96.00
  • -1,000 SFRZ6 95.31/96.81 strangle, 15.5 ref 96.00
  • +10,000 0QQ6 96.12/96.25/96.31 call trees, 0.5ref 96.025
  • +2,000 2QQ6/2QU6 96.25 straddle spread 7.25 net
  • -4,000 SFRV5 95.56/95.68 put spd, 1.75, 96.00
  • +10,000 SFRZ6 95.37/95.50/96.06/96.18 put condor 6.5-6.75 ref 96.00
  • 1,600 SFRZ6 95.87/96.06/96.25 call flys
  • 3,500 SFRN6 96.12 puts ref 96.14
  • +5,000 0QZ6 96.18/96.37/96.56/96.75 call condor 4.0 ref 96.115
  • 2,000 SFRZ6 95.81/95.93/96.06/96.12 put condors ref 96.015
  • +2,000 SFRQ6 96.12/96.18/96.25 call flys, 1.5
• Treasury Options:
  • 3,600 TYU6 112.5/114.5 1x3 call spds, 2 net (3-leg over) ref 109-18
  • +13,500 USU6 110/111 put spds, 16-17 ref 112-11
  • 4,000 FVQ6 107.5 calls, 6 ref 107-00
  • 6,000 FVQ6 106.5/107 2x1 put spds
  • 4,500 TYQ6 109.5/110 strangles
  • 4,500 FVQ6 109 calls, .5, total volume over 12,000
  • 2,000 TYU6 110.5/113.5 call spds ref 109-23
  • 40,400 wk3 TY 109.75 calls, 19 ref 109-23.5 (exp 7/17)
  • -5,000 TYQ6 108/109.5 put spds, 15 vs 109-25 to -24.5/0.35%
  • 1,200 TUU6 102.37/102.87 put spds vs. 103.5/104 call spds ref 103-04.12
  • +2,000 wk3 TY 109.25/110 2x5 call spd, 18
  • +3,000 FVQ6 106.25/106.5 put spds, 3 vs 106-31/0.08%
  • 3,500 TYU6 112 calls, 6
  • +3,000 TYU6 112.5 calls, 5
  • -3,000 TYU6 108 puts, 13 vs 109-19.5/0.19%
  • +4,000 USQ6 111.5 puts, 26 to 27
  • +3,000 wk3 TY 109/109.75 1x2 call spd, 14