SWAPS: Commerzbank Expect Dutch Flows To Limit Any Weakness In Long End ASWs

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.86/186.32 High Jun 30 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 184.87 @ 08:15 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 183.78/183.17 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

Resistance in EURJPY remains intact for now. Last week’s initial gains cancels a recent bearish threat and attention is on the key short-term bull hurdles at 185.86, the Jun 30 high, and 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high. Clearance of both price points would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. A break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 182.05, the May 6 low.

"*BAHRAIN SAYS INTERCEPTED SEVERAL IRAN ATTACKS TUESDAY MORNING" - BBG

• RES 4: 121.01 1.382 proj of the May 18 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 3: 120.55 1.236 proj of the May 18 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
• RES 2: 119.78 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 118.27 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.75 @ 07:55 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 116.66 Low Jun 10 and a key support       
• SUP 2: 116.09 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 115.68 Low May 18 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 4: 115.19 Low Apr 7

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play, however, the recent bearish extension highlights a continuation of a corrective cycle. The move down has exposed the next important support at 116.66, the Jun 10 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bear threat. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 118.27, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a reversal. The bull trigger is 119.78, the Jun 30 high.