FOREX: CME Roll Pace Update

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28  
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5 
• RES 1: 1.4030 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3951 @ 08:12 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 1.3926 Low Aug 07
• SUP 2: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3867 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 1.3817 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 

USDCAD traded lower Friday, confirming an extension of the bear leg that started Jun 24. The move down highlights a clear break of support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.4030. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull leg. Sights are on 1.3899, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that it is still possible that the current bear leg is a correction - medium-term signals remain bullish. Initial resistance is 1.4030, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 0.7144 High Jun 5 
• RES 3: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.7088 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.7078 High Aug 7
• PRICE: 0.7066 @ 08:07 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 0.7007/0.6922 20-day EMA / Low Jul 29 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact for now and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces the short-term bull theme. Price has recently breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.7012, highlighting a stronger recovery and, Friday’s gains delivered a print above 0.7071, 50.0% of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. A continuation higher would open 0.7112, the 61.8% retracement. The first important support lies at 0.6922, the Jul 29 low. 

• RES 4: 185.56 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg 
• RES 3: 184.64 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 184.02 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 184.32 50.0% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• PRICE: 183.06 @ 08:03 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 181.33/179.37 Low Aug 7 / 3 and key support 
• SUP 2: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10 2025 
• SUP 4: 175.29 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Apr 17 bull leg

EURJPY is trading higher today as the cross retraces the sharp sell-off between the Jul 29 - Aug 3 period. For now, gains are considered corrective. The next resistance point to monitor is 184.32, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 179.37, the Aug 3 low and key short-term support.