LNG: China’s Record Power Load Fails to Boost LNG Demand: Platts

Jul-09 16:12

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China's power grids are under pressure as record-breaking heat and stronger industrial activity driv...

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US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Narrowly Mixed, Hospitals, Insurers Lagging

Jun-09 16:10
  • Stocks are mixed at midday Monday morning trade, inside narrow ranges with the SPX eminis and Nasdaq outperforming a mildly weaker Dow index. Relatively muted trade as markets await Wednesday's CPI release.
  • Currently, the DJIA trades down 44.63 points (-0.1%) at 42718.52, S&P E-Minis up 6 points (0.1%) at 6012.75, Nasdaq up 61.4 points (0.3%) at 19591.89.
  • Materials, materials, energy and tech-related stocks led gainers in the first half: Albemarle +4.50%, Enphase Energy +4.03%, Evergy +3.43%, Qualcomm gained +3.55% while Intel Corp climbed 3.46%.
  • Meanwhile, health care and insurers underperformed in the first half, weaker after Goldman Sachs healthcare conference where industry leaders reported average hospital stays remain longer than pre-Covid levels.
  • Laggers included Allstate Corp -4.23%, Aon -4.23%, American International Group -4.18%, Progressive -4.16%, PG&E Corp -4.16% and Arthur J Gallagher -3.24%.

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Atlanta Fed GDPNow At 3.8% With Less Acute Inventory Drag

Jun-09 16:05

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 ticks back up to 3.8% Q/Q SAAR, where it stood last Thursday before the May employment report saw a downtick to 3.7%. 

  • This comes after today's wholesale trade data: equipment investment has been revised up slightly (1.7% Q/Q SAAR), with the drag from inventories seen a little less acute (though no doubt seen a drag in the quarter after Q1's tariff front-running buildup).
  • The downgrade Friday (no estimate was published at the time) was largely due to slightly weaker personal consumption and investment estimates. See table below.
  • Reflecting the relative lack of economic activity data this week, It's a full 8 days until the next published GDPNow update (June 18).
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Source: Atlanta Fed

 

US DATA: NY Fed: Consumers Less Pessimistic On Jobs, Finances (2/2)

Jun-09 15:54

The vast majority of Labor Market and Household Finance categories in the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) improved in May, though many remain weaker compared with late 2024/early 2025 as tariff uncertainty appears to continue in respondents' minds.

  • One-year ahead earnings growth expectations rose 0.2pp to 2.7%, not far from the 12-month average of 2.8%, while mean unemployment expectations (re the mean probability the US national unemployment rate will be higher in 1 year's time) fell 3.3pp to 40.8%, though that's still above the 37.7% 12-month average. It should be noted that this hasn't been a particularly effective series in predicting future unemployment rates, but is still useful as a gauge of current consumer sentiment.
  • Respondents' mean probability of losing their job in the next 12 months also improved, falling 0.5pp to 14.8%, with the expected 12-month quits rate  up 0.1pp to 18.3% - and the perceived probability of finding another job in 3 months (if respondents left the current job) rose 1.5pp to 50.7% (12m avg 52.2%).
  • Against this backdrop, respondents were more optimistic (or at least, less pessimistic) on household finance prospects (current situations compared to a year ago and expectations about year ahead), with median expected household income growth up 0.1pp to 2.7% (albeit below the 12m avg 3.0%), perceived credit access improving, and lower perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment.
  • Expectations of higher equity prices no doubt helped here too after the May stock recovery: the mean perceived probability that stocks would be higher in 12 months rose to 36.3%, though that's below the 12-month average 38.7%.
  • Perhaps the weakest aspect of the May report overall was that median nominal household spending growth expectations dipped 0.2pp to 5.0%, though that's above the trailing 12-month average of 4.9% and being a nominal figure it may simply reflect lower 1Y inflation expectations.
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