CHILE: USDCLP Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Nov-14 13:01
- The Chilean peso is outperforming again in early trade, despite the further decline in copper prices today, with USDCLP 0.2% lower at typing around the 977 level. Analysts note that market positioning has started to reach stretched levels with net shorts of over $7bn, according to the NDF positioning vs. local banks.
- From a technical perspective, a bull cycle in USDCLP remains in play and the recent breach of 966.61, the Aug 5 high, opens 990.67, the Feb 26 high, ahead of the psychological 1000.00 handle. Initial firm support lies at 959.00, the 20-day EMA.
- No macro data are in the calendar for today, with attention on Q3 GDP and current account figures, which are due next Monday. Meanwhile, President Boric arrives in Lima today for the APEC meeting.
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US DATA: Empire State Details Stronger Than Headline Suggests
Oct-15 12:56
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's General Business Conditions headline index came in well below expected at -11.9 in October (3.6 survey), the lowest since May 2024 and a sharp pullback from 11.5 in September. September marked the first above-zero reading in 10 months, so a pullback in current conditions is perhaps unsurprising - thought not to this extent. However, the details looked much stronger than the headline suggests, from both an employment and inflation perspective.
- The 6-month ahead outlook improved for the second consecutive month, to 38.7 - the best since October 2021 - from 30.6 prior.
- Looking through the subcomponents, it's a mixed story that doesn't fully capture the dichotomy between weak current conditions and the suddenly very optimistic outlook. New orders fell to -10.2, a 5-month low, from positive 9.5 prior; employment ("number of employees") however picked up to a 22-month high 4.1 from negative 5.7 prior, with workweeks increasing, despite weaker current activity. Per NY Fed, that's the first "increase in both employment and the average workweek for the first time in a year".
- Prices paid picked up 5.8 points to to 29.0, with prices received up 3.4 points to 10.8 - indicating a modest uptick in inflationary pressures albeit remaining at "modest" levels, per the report. And that came as the new supply availability index showed greater constraints, falling to -7.5 from -2.1.
Elsewhere, per the survey: "shipments edged lower. Delivery times were slightly shorter, while supply availability deteriorated somewhat. Inventories shrank".
**MNI: US REDBOOK: OCT STORE SALES +5.6% V YR AGO MO
Oct-15 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: OCT STORE SALES +5.6% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.6% WK ENDED OCT 12 V YR AGO WK
EGB SYNDICATION: 10-year LGB: Priced
Oct-15 12:53
- Reoffer: 99.514 to yield 2.681%
- Size set at E1.25bln (in line with MNI expectation)
- Spread set earlier at MS+25bps (Guidance was MS+29bps area then MS+27bps area)
- Benchmark: 2.60% Aug-34 Bund +42.9bp
- Books closed in excess of E6.1bln (exc JLM interest)
- Coupon: Annual, ACT/ACT
- Maturity: 23-October-2034
- Settlement: 23-October-2024 (T+6)
- ISIN: LU2922074849
- Bookrunners: BARCLAYS / BCEE / BGL BNP PARIBAS / BIL / HSBC (B&D)
- Timing: FTT at 14:00BST / 15:00CET
From market source / Bloomberg
