US DATA: Chicago Fed CARTS Points To Very Strong Core June Retail Sales
The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) preliminary estimate for June retail sales ex-autos growth is 0.7% M/M, vs +0.8% actual in May. While this would mark a more impressive nominal figure for ex-auto sales than currently expected (the Bloomberg consensus for July 16th's Census Bureau release: -0.1%), it's even more impressive in real growth terms: +1.4% (was 0.0% in May).
- Indeed the CARTS release estimates retail ex-auto prices fell 0.71% M/M (based on the average of the weekly estimates for the month), which in turn appears to largely reflect a big drop in gasoline prices.
- It should be noted that CARTS had a large downside miss with its final May estimate of -0.2%. But a strong reading would be in line with other indicators including Redbook retail sales and BofA card data.
- And it would guide to a strong Control Group figure to close out the quarter; current consensus is for 0.4% M/M (0.7% prior).
- Overall the 3M/3M annualized rate of core sales growth may have peaked in May, but is still set to post a double-digit outturn in June.
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EU-BOND SYNDICATION: Dual tranche: 2.50% Oct-2030 / 3.625% Dec-2040: Priced
2.50% Oct-2030 (ISIN: EU000A4EG021)
- ReOffer: 98.226 to yield 2.940%
- Size: E3bln (WNG)
- Books closed in excess of E64.5bln (inc E4.5bln JLM interest)
- Spread set at MS+5bps (Guidance was MS + 8 bps area)
- HR 100% vs 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl (DE000BU25059). Ref 97/780 / 2.748% +19.2bp
- TOE: 14:24BST / 15:24CET. FTT immediately
3.625% Dec-2040 (ISIN: EU000A4EJF17)
- ReOffer: 97.670 to yield 3.835%
- Size: E5bln (WNG)
- Books closed in excess of E96.5bln (incl. E5bln JLM interest)
- Spread set at 3.375% Oct-39 EU-bond + 10bps (Guidance was + 12 bps area)
- HR 99% vs 2.60% May-41 Bund (DE000BU2F009). Ref 90.773 / 3.398% / +43.7bp
- TOE: 14:22BST / 15:22CET. FTT immediately
For both:
- Settlement: 16 June 2026 (T+5)
- Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNP Paribas / BofA Securities / Santander / UBS
From market source / MNI colour
US: FISA Reauthorisation Likely Depends On Trump Withdrawing Pulte Nomination
President Donald Trump may have to withdraw his nomination of Bill Pulte to be acting director of national intelligence if Congress is to authorise Section 702 (FISA) before the surveillance powers go dark on Friday. With concern among Democrats and moderate Republicans over Pulte's qualifications and intent in the role, Pulte faces an uphill battle getting Senate confirmation. However, the Housing Finance Director can serve as acting DNI for up to 210 days without Congressional approval.
- Politico reports, “Pulte’s future is expected to come up when [Speaker Mike] Johnson speaks with Trump at the White House later today. A permanent DNI nomination could help defuse the situation, and Trump has interviewed potential nominees to permanently fill the DNI role, two Republicans [said].”
- Senator John Cornyn said, “Democrats are not going to vote to pass 702 until [Pulte’s] withdrawn. And we need that done. That’s 60% of the president’s daily brief is materials generated by FISA 702. So the stalemate needs to be broken.”
- Senator Mark Warner (D-VA), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee said there are ongoing conversations about a way forward but was unsure about Pulte’s future. “This problem was created by the White House. Nothing has changed about Mr. Pulte’s qualifications.”
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters Monday, “The administration, probably, at some point is going to have to come up with a nominee — a permanent nominee — that will be viewed at least by enough Democrats as sufficient to get their support.”
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Jul'26 10Y Call Buyer - Position Building
- +55,000 TYN6 110 calls, 10 ref 109-05 to -04.5 (adds to some +75k yesterday, OI +26.5k)
