AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper But Slightly Richer After The RBA Decision
ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -6.5) sit slightly stronger after the RBA leaves the cash rate target at 4.10%, for the fourth consecutive meeting. This was Michele Bullock’s first meeting as Governor. The statement was little changed, which says something in itself - for now it is business as usual at the Reserve Bank. By choosing the Deputy Governor to replace Philip Lowe continuity appears to have been preserved. The Board retained its tightening bias and so has kept its options open for the November 7 decision given updated forecasts and Q3 CPI due on October 25.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer after the RBA decision to be 1-6bps cheaper on the day. The 3/10 curve is steeper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -13bps.
- The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 2bps lower to 3bps higher.
- The bills strip has twist-steepened, with pricing +3 to -4. Ahead of the RBA, the strip had bear-steepened.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed after the RBA decision. The market had only attached a 12% chance of a 25bp hike today. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.38%, the highest since late July.
- Tomorrow the local calendar sees Judo Bank PMIs (Final) released.
- Tomorrow the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond.
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USDCAD TECHS: Surges Into Friday Close
- RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 3: 1.3727 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
- RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
- PRICE: 1.3596 @ 18:16 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: 1.3491 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3413 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
- SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
USDCAD bounced sharply into the Friday close, returning to the bullish backdrop and prevailing theme. Price action cements the corrective nature of the early weakness in the pair, meaning recent gains reinforce the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, May 26 high. A trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3726 and represents an objective further out. Support is at 1.3491, the 20-day EMA. It has been tested, a clear would signal scope for a deeper correction.
AUDUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
- RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
- RES 1: 0.6571 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30
- PRICE: 0.6452 @ 18:14 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
- SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. Resistance at the 20-day EMA of 0.6489 has been pierced, but markets look to cement a break before any reversal higher can be confirmed. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6571 - a key resistance. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would resume the downtrend and open 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Reverses Off Cycle High
- RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30
- PRICE: 157.57 @ 18:13 BST Sep 1
- SUP 1: 157.06/156.87 Low Sep 01 / Aug 23
- SUP 2: 156.48 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
- SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally
Prices faltered again Friday, with the cross retreating further off the cycle high. The trend outlook is bullish and the move lower is considered corrective - for now. The pair has pierced the 20-day EMA, a continuation lower would expose 156.87 and 156.48, the Aug 23 low and the 50-day EMA. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces bullish trend conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. A break of the 50-day EMA would undermine the uptrend.
