FED: Chair Warsh To Give Jackson Hole Keynote Speech Aug 28 At 10am ET

• RES 4: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 3: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 1.4190 High Jul 9  
• PRICE: 1.4107 @ 21:27 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 1.4003 Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 1.3981 38.2% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 

The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish and the bear cycle since Jun 24 is considered corrective. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and attention is on the next important support at 1.4017, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, however, it remains intact and the latest recovery is encouraging for bulls. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 1.4248, the Jun 24, 25 and 30 high.

• RES 4: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.7088 High Jun 15  
• RES 2: 0.7071 50.0% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7027 High Jul 21  
• PRICE: 0.6998 @ 21:19 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 0.6971 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. A bear cycle remains intact and - for now - recent gains are considered corrective. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.7011. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger short-term bounce and signal scope for a continued retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. A breach of it would resume the downtrend.

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 186.12/186.32 High Jul 21 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 186.08 @ 20:59 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 185.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 183.78/183.17 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 3: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 181.87 Low Mar 16 

EURJPY is holding on to its latest gains. Sights are on the key short-term bull hurdles at 185.86 (pierced), the Jun 30 high, and 186.32, the Jun 16 and 17 high. Clearance of both price points would be a bullish development. On the downside, a key support to watch lies at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. A clear break of this level would instead pave the way for an extension towards 182.05, the May 6 low.