REFINING: Cepsa Market and Operational Indicators Q2
Jul-29 11:08
Source - Cepsa
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EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDZAR Finds Support
Jun-29 11:08
- EURHUF trend conditions remain bullish despite this week’s pullback. The cross traded to a fresh trend high Monday of 404.76, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies also point north and the focus is on the 410.00 handle. On the downside, a break of 393.89, the Jun 22 low, would however undermine short-term bearish conditions and signal scope for a deeper pullback ahead of the 50-day EMA, at 389.80.
- EURPLN continues to trade above last week’s low of 4.6262 (Jun 21). Price also remains below key resistance at 4.7279, Apr 26 high and 4.7446, the Jun 16 high. A clear breach of this resistance zone is required to strengthen bullish conditions and would open 4.7867, the Mar 25 high. Weakness below 4.6262 would instead highlight a short-term bearish development and attention would turn to the 4.6000 level and the key short-term support at 4.5599, May 30 low.
- USDZAR is trading higher. The pair recently found support at 15.1685 on Jun 9, and the move higher from that low highlights a reversal. Furthermore, recent price action has also defined a support at 15.7179, the Jun 15 low, and the pair remains above this level. Attention is on 16.3237, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A break below 15.7179 is required to threaten the bullish theme.
- USDTRY reversed direction last Friday and traded lower on Monday, before recovering from the session low. The move down highlights the first real threat to the uptrend that started Dec 23 2021. Monday’s move lower means the 50-day EMA, at 16.2137, has been tested for the first time since the Dec low. The EMA has so far provided support. It represents an important pivot area and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is at 17.4446, the Jun 22 high.
US EURODLR FUTURES: Post-LIBOR Settle Update: Short End Ignores New 3M High
Jun-29 11:04
Lead quarterly EDU2 holding at 96.735 (+0.005) after 3M LIBOR set' climbs +0.02671 to near 3Y high of 2.27714% (+0.04271/wk).
- Balance of Whites (EDZ2-EDM3) trading steady to +0.025, Reds through Golds (EDU3-EDM7) +0.040-0.055 w/ Greens-Blues (EDU4-EDM6) outperforming.
- Recession expectations priced in front end: Mar'23/Jun'23 inverted by -0.135. Most inverted calendar spd: EDH3/EDH4 extends to -0.510 vs. -0.445 Tue.
- Tuesday option roundup: Modest overall FI option volume Tuesday focused on downside puts as near-term 75bp likely to remain the "new baseline" from the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, underlying rates see-sawed off session lows in late trade. Salient examples in SOFR, Eurodollar and Treasury options include:
- Eurodollar blocks included +20,000 Dec 95.5/96.5 put spds, 40.5 vs. 96.20/0.36% as well as +17,000 Dec 95.62/96.62 put spds, 45.5 vs. 96.20/0.42%.
- Treasury options saw buy of at least 25,000 (12.5k Blocked) TYU2 113/115 2x1 put spds at 1.0 in addition to 10,000 TYQ 113/114 put spds, 8.
- SOFR options package structured as a bear flattener with buy of 30,000 SFRZ2 96.25/97.50 put spds 77.5 vs. -20,000 SFRZ3 96.00 puts at 49.5.
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +0.7% SA THRU JUN 24 WK
Jun-29 11:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +0.7% SA THRU JUN 24 WK
