EU COMMUNICATIONS: Cellnex Headline

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• With CPI out of the way and headline in line with BOE's forecast to 2dp (albeit helped somewhat by lower fuel prices but services and core goods are also lower than the BOE's forecasts - it's just higher food prices that were the issue), inflation shouldn't have a significant bearing on the June MPC decision.
• The June MPC meeting will be a surprise to markets if the outcome is anything other than an on hold decision with unchanged official guidance.
• Expectations are relatively strongly pointing towards a 7-2 vote split with both Dhingra and Taylor likely to follow up their votes for a 50bp cut in May with a vote for a sequential cut (the magnitude of which is unlikely to elicit a market reaction).
• The main focus is on whether the dataflow has been enough to convince any other members of the MPC to vote for sequential cuts – with Breeden making the most dovish comments since the May meeting in our view, but Ramsden over the past few months showing the most willingness to change his vote based on labour market developments (which have been the datapoint to have deteriorated the most since the May meeting). We also think that Greene sounds a lot less hawkish than she has in the past so wouldn’t completely rule out her dovishly dissenting here.
• The Minutes will be closely watched, again mostly for discussion around the labour market and how widespread the view is amongst those who did not vote for a cut at this meeting that the labour market is deteriorating.

• RES 4: $84.23 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.93 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $77.62 - High Jun 13 
• PRICE: $74.47 @ 07:17 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $68.49 - Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $63.94 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $59.74 - Low May 30 
• SUP 4: $54.33 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded sharply higher last week and last Friday’s early rally marked an acceleration of the current bull phase. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend is in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted $68.49, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. 

• RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $3451.3 - High Jun 16          
• PRICE: $3382.2 @ 07:25 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: $3344.8/3271.7 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20 
• SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 
• SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support 

A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3271.7, the 50-day EMA.