AMERICAS OIL: Canadian Oil Refinery Shut Down Could Impact Northeast US Supply

• RES 4: 1.3574 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg     
• RES 3: 1.3522 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - 18 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3480/1.3509 61.8% of the May 1 - 18 bear leg/ High May 26
• RES 1: 1.3441 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3395 @ 17:23 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.3384/3303 Low Jun 12 / Low May 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3277 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 1 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.3212 Low Apr 7 
• SUP 4: 1.3159 Low Mar 31 and a key support

Resistance to watch in GBPUSD is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3441. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a continuation higher towards 1.3509, the May 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal. For now trend signals remain bearish. Key short-term support is 1.3303, the May 18 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development.   

See Full MOU Text Here

There was a readout of the MOU text to reporters which provided some quick headlines of the contents. CNN quickly followed up with the full text of the MOU. 

The questions that we have selected for Instant Answers for the June FOMC statement and SEP (scheduled to be released at 2pm ET today) are as follows (note they are slightly different than those in our June Fed preview):

• Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum
• Number of dissenters in favor of a hike
• Number of dissenters in favor of a cut
• Does the statement keep the phrase "the extent and timing of additional adjustments"?
• Does the statement add an explicit tightening (not neutral) bias on rates?
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2027
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2028
• Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate
• Number of 2026 Dots > 3.375%
• Number of 2026 Dots > 3.625%
• Number of 2026 Dots > 3.875%
• Number of 2026 Dots < 3.625%
• Total 2026 Dots