SONIA: Call fly buyer
Apr-04 07:52
SFIN4 95.30/95.40/95.50c fly, bought for 1.5 in 3.5k.
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BUNDS: Some continuation higher.
Mar-05 07:49
- Not generally a big market mover, but French IP has missed consensus and was revised lower, this will keep Govies underpinned/bid.
- Next resistance in Bund is still further out, towards 133.40 initially.
STIR: SONIA Steady, Fiscal Speculation Continues To Dominate
Mar-05 07:47
SONIA futures are -0.5 to +2.5 through the blues, twist flattening.
- Core global bond futures are a little above levels printed during Monday’s SONIA settlement window.
- Asia-Pac news flow had little impact on wider core global FI markets.
- BoE-dated OIS pricing is little changed, with ~58.5bp of cuts showing for ’24.
- The latest round of UK fiscal speculation has focused on the potential for a 2% cut to the basic rate of income tax, with familiar financing ideas flagged once again.
- This wasn’t a new idea, but would represent slightly looser fiscal settings than were envisaged just one week ago.
- That would point to the need for higher for longer BoE interest rates.
- Elsewhere. BRC like-for-like sales data was softer than expected.
- Barclaycard spending data was also soft.
- Both survey providers pointed to the weather as a headwind re: shop footfall, along with well-known headwinds for consumers.
- Final services and composite PMI data headlines the UK schedule today, while gilts will have to digest the latest round of 2027 supply.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Mar-24 | 5.206 | +1.7 |
| May-24 | 5.177 | -1.2 |
| Jun-24 | 5.109 | -8.0 |
| Aug-24 | 4.975 | -21.4 |
| Sep-24 | 4.869 | -31.9 |
| Nov-24 | 4.719 | -47.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.605 | -58.4 |
MNI: FRANCE JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -1.1% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y
Mar-05 07:45
- MNI: FRANCE JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -1.1% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y
- FRANCE JAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -1.6% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y
