GLOBAL MACRO: Cabinet Tells Starmer To Set Out Timeline For Leaving: Times

• RES 4: 7600.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 7598.23 3.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 28 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 7563.25 3.000 proj of the Apr 23 - 28 - 29 price swing
• RES 1: 7540.00 High May 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 7386.75 @ 07:26 BST May 20
• SUP 1: 7354.25 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 7299.96 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 7108.77 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 6991.75 Low Apr 15

The primary trend in S&P E-Minis is bullish and recent cycle highs reinforce current conditions. The latest pullback appears corrective. Initial firm support to watch lies at 7307.39, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 7119.33, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, clearance of 7540.00, the May 14 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 7563.25, a Fibonacci projection.

• First take from the first 15 or so minutes: Dhingra and Breeden both seem some way from voting for a hike (we had put both as the second and third most dovish on the MPC following the April meeting) - so that's not a huge surprise.
• Bailey's said that today's CPI would have justified the arguments at the last TSC hearing - and noted that markets were pricing a cut at that point - so implicitly hinting he would have supported a cut in April had there not been the Iranian war. This is important as it gives further indication of the amount of restrictiveness he thinks current rates are giving (particularly with the tightening now priced in filtering through to mortgage rates etc).
• Mann also sounds a little less convinced concerning a hike in upcoming meetings - reiterating that "activist" can also mean staying on hold for a prolonged period, it doesn't necessarily just mean 50bp moves rather than 25bp.
• So far we don't think there is a huge amount new here, but there also seems to be no further moves towards a hawkish direction so far.

"This is important in judging it, compared to four years ago, this is much more of an oil shock than a gas shock globally, so those damage the gas field. It's a smaller part of the overall global picture, and that's relevant. It's relevant when you look at, for instance, the relative movements in the Ofgem cap. They are much smaller than four years ago, and the reason for that is that far more of it's in oil and gas, but gas is a bigger part of the UK story."