EGBS: Bund Futures Still Below 50-day EMA Following Very Active Week

• RES 4: 129.55 High Nov 26 and key resistance    
• RES 3: 129.24 High Dec 1    
• RES 2: 128.75 High Dec 3 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 128.08/70 High Dec 8 / 20-day EMA           
• PRICE: 127.23 @ 10:06 GMT Dec 10 
• SUP 1: 127.05 Low Dec 9         
• SUP 2: 127.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 126.81 2.764 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.58 3.000 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing

Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following a recent impulsive sell-off and this week’s downward acceleration. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards the 127.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract has entered oversold territory. A corrective bounce would allow the oversold condition to unwind.

Reeves was very clear that she did not authorise any of the briefings and said they were leaks. She sets out her timeline for the Budget below:

• "On 4th November, I gave a speech where I set out my priorities for the budget, to cut the cost of living, to cut NHS waiting lists and to cut the debt and the the deficit. I was clear in that speech that I wanted to build more resilient public finances with the headroom to withstand global turbulence. As you saw when I delivered my budget, I was able to increase the fiscal headroom... more than doubling the headroom I was I was clear that to achieve those objectives that we will all have to contribute."
• "On Thursday 13th November, there was a leak to the Financial Times about one element of the budget. The leak presented partial and inaccurate information and an inaccurate picture of the budget strategy. The implication that some could take from that story would have been that I had ditched core elements of the budget strategy that I had set out just a few days before in that speech, and that I wasn't going to build up the headroom that I had previously said was necessary. This wasn't true, and so both the Treasury and Number 10 issued statements on 14th November, on the record to the press to be clear that the budget priorities stood, including to build more resilience into the public finances, to with headroom to withstand global turbulence. It was very important because the story in the FT was both partial and inaccurate, and it was important that quickly we ensured that people understood that the strategy that I set out publicly on the fourth of November was still stood."
• When challenged that "George Parker, a very renowned political journalist at the FT, and he did say, according to officials briefed on the move, that's quite direct" Reeves replied that it "was not an off the record briefing, it was a leak... It was incredibly damaging and frustrating. That is why we have a leak inquiry. It was not briefing that was signed off by me, any of my ministers or officials. It was unacceptable."

• Reeves: It is unlikely for the March forecast there will be a new OBR Chair (to replace Hughes).
• Likely start to advertise for the role in the new year.