USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 156.47 2.00 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 3: 155.29 1.764 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
- RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 154.79 High Apr 16
- PRICE: 154.27 @ 06:39 BST Apr 18
- SUP 1: 152.98 Low Apr 15
- SUP 2: 152.33/150.73 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 149.03 Low Mar 19
- SUP 4: 147.44 Low Mar 14
USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading just below its recent cycle high. The break higher last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The trend is overbought, however, this is not - for now - a concern for bulls. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too. Sights are on the 155.00 handle next. Support lies at 152.33, 20-day EMA.
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US TSYS: Treasury Futures edge Higher As BoJ Lifts Rates
- Jun'24 10Y futures pushed higher after the BoJ lifted rates, hitting a high of 110-01 we now trade just off those levels at 109-30+, up + 04+ since NY closed
- Looking at technical levels, initial support is 109-25+ (Feb 23 and the bear trigger), below here 109-14+ (Nov 28 low). While to the upside, initial resistance is 110-30+ (Mar 14 high) above here 111-03+( 50-day EMA).
- Treasury yields curves are slightly steeper today with the 2Y is -0.8bp to 4.723%, 10Y -0.6bp to 4.318%, while the 2y10y is +.253 to -40.727.
- Earlier, US lawmakers reached a funding deal to avert a shutdown through until Sept 30, with law makers now in a race to pass the bill before the midnight Friday deadline for a partial shutdown.
- Looking ahead the US calendar is empty today, with Building Permits & Housing starts on Tuesday focus this week will be on the FOMC on Thursday
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 1150.37 Intraday high
- PRICE: 150.29 @ 05:25 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 148.41 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
- SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1
USDJPY is trading higher today following this morning’s BOJ announcement. The extension strengthens a short-term bullish condition and the USD has cleared a number of short-term resistance points. The move above 150.00 signals scope for a test of key resistance and the bull trigger at 150.89, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend. Key support lies at 146.49, the Mar 8 / 11 low. Initial support is at 148.41, the 50-day EMA.
FOREX: Dollar Boosted By Dovish BoJ & RBA Signals
The BBDXY sits up close to 0.15%, last near 1239.4. Gains of close to 0.50-0.60% have been recorded against both JPY and AUD.
- The main focus was on the BoJ outcome. In the event, the central bank removed NIRP and raised rates to 0.0-0.1%, while it also abandoned YCC, but kept bond purchases largely unchanged.
- Importantly, the BOJ stated it will make "nimble responses," increasing its purchases, should long-term interest rates rise." Also, given the current outlook for economic activity and prices, the BOJ anticipates that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being," the board said.
- The bond purchases point and still accommodative policy settings has weighed on the yen. From near 149.30 prior to the outcome, we have spiked close to 150.00, holding close to this level in recent dealings. Note BoJ Ueda's press conference is due later at 3:30pm Japan time.
- For the AUD, the RBA removed its language around further rate hikes can't be ruled out, instead replacing it with the board would not rule anything in or out. RBA Governor Bullock is currently holding her press conference, but largely reiterating what the earlier statement said.
- Governor Bullock played down any shift to neutral. Still, AUD/USD is close to session lows, last near 0.6530, off nearly 0.50%. Weaker equity tones in HK and China have has also likely weighed.
- NZD/USD has been dragged lower, last near 0.6060/65, off around 0.35%. The AUD/NZD cross has moved away from recent highs of 1.0795 to 1.0765/70.
- Looking ahead, there are US February housing and Canadian CPI data. ECB’s de Guindos speaks today too.
